Research On Multi-factor Coupling Mechanism Analysis And Management Strategy Of Community Fire Risk

Community fires have been frequented in recent years and are of great concern to society as a whole.Community is a complex structure,rich in elements of the system,with high population density,complex building structure and function,social activities of many types and frequent,environmental risk factors highly uncertain and so on.Based on this,community fires also present the typical risk characteristics of complex and diverse causal factors,numerous risk factors and significant coupling effects among them,and exploring the risk influencing factors and their coupling effects has become a key issue to be solved for community fire prevention and control.Therefore,this paper systematically identifies the influencing factors of community fire risk,measures the coupling degree of the interaction between factors of each subsystem from the perspective of factor coupling effect analysis,simulates and analyzes the coupling situation for key links,and proposes targeted fire risk control measures accordingly.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)A comprehensive identification of community fire risk influencing factors and their structural relationships was conducted.Based on an overview of community fire risk and other related theories,a total of 30 community fire risk influencing factors were identified in four dimensions: human,physical,environmental,and management,with literature analysis as the main focus and field research as the supplement.And by dividing the factors into 8 levels through the explanatory structural model(ISM),the community fire risk interactions were analyzed,which provided a theoretical basis for the construction of the system dynamics causality diagram.(2)The coupling effect relationship between community fire risk factors was analyzed.Through the coupling of community fire risk factors for classification and process analysis,a coupling degree model was established to quantitatively measure the coupling of factors occurring within and between the four subsystems of human,physical,environmental,and management.The results show that the coupling relationships among the four subsystems all show a high-intensity coupling state,in which the interaction relationship between the human factor system and the management factor system is strong.(3)Simulation analysis of the coupled "human-management" factors of community fire risk was carried out.The initial conditions of community fire risk system dynamics simulation were taken as the factor weights and coupling degree values derived from risk coupling,and the system dynamics model was applied to simulate and analyze the trend that the overall risk level of community fire risk system showed an increasing growth rate under the coupling effect,and the homogeneous factors of human and management and the key risk factors in the "human-management" heterogeneous factor coupling were identified through comparison.The key risk factors in the coupling of people and management homogeneous factors and "people-management" heterogeneous factors are identified respectively by comparison.(4)The decoupling control strategy of community fire risk coupling is proposed.Based on the principle of decoupling,risk control measures are proposed for the three stages of community fire risk coupling before,during and after the coupling,such as focusing on the cultivation of residents’ fire safety awareness,establishing an intelligent fire warning system,and improving the fire safety management system,so as to achieve the purpose of prevention and reducing community fire risk at the same time.Therefore,based on the study of the identification and hierarchical relationship of community fire risk influencing factors,this study quantitatively analyzes the degree of coupling effects among factors,constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the coupling effects,and proposes decoupling control strategies for community fire risk coupling.The research results enrich the relevant research results on community fire risk,and provide references and basis for further strengthening and enhancing the community fire safety management capability and resistance to fire risk.