| Fossil energy power generation leads to increasingly prominent climate change and environmental pollution problems,and the power industry is facing strong pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction.In order to accelerate the pace of greenhouse gas emission reduction and energy transformation,new energy power generation has been paid more and more attention,and relevant supporting policies have been continuously adjusted and improved.Planning the investment portfolio of various power generation technologies is an important method for power enterprises to ensure expected returns and reduce investment risks.Therefore,based on the analysis of the development of new energy policy and its uncertainty,this paper focuses on its influence on portfolio investment strategy of power enterprises.In this paper,the real option and portfolio optimization theory are used to construct the portfolio decision model of power enterprises.The model considers many factors affecting power generation investment,including electricity price,fuel price,carbon price,investment cost and green power certificate price,etc.The investment value and discrete income distribution of different power generation projects are estimated by real option method,the results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method are taken as the input variables of portfolio optimization model,and then the optimal power generation portfolio strategy is obtained.Based on the above model,this paper simulates and analyzes the influence of different new energy policy changes on the power portfolio strategy.For this reason,four scenarios are set: expected return changes,subsidies are gradually cancelled,carbon emission reduction standards are raised,and different green power certificate prices are set.The results show that:(1)Considering the uncertainty value,the investment value of wind power,photovoltaic power generation and fossil energy power generation is not much different,and the investment risk of new energy power generation is generally less than that of fossil energy power generation.(2)Second,when the investment ratio is limited,the investment ratio of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is fixed at the upper limit of the limited ratio,and the proportion of coal power in the power generation portfolio is gradually increased.If there is no investment ratio limit,wind power and photovoltaic power generation occupy most of the power generation portfolio.(3)Third,under the existing subsidy level,increasing photovoltaic power generation is the best decision to ensure higher expected returns and reduce risks.If the government reduces or even cancels subsidies,the total investment share of new energy will drop obviously.The strategy to ensure the expected income is to increase coal power,but this will lead to an increase in the investment risk of power generation portfolio.(4)Fourth.If the government cancels the subsidy for new energy power generation,the income from carbon emission trading and green certificate trading can compensate the income from new energy power generation to a certain extent.With the continuous improvement of carbon emission reduction standards,it is necessary to increase the allocation proportion of photovoltaic power generation.In addition,higher initial green price will increase the proportion of new energy generation and reduce the investment risk of power generation portfolio.According to the above research results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to guide the investment decision-making and energy conservation and emission reduction of the power industry. |
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