Drivers’ Willingness To Use Tidal Lanes Based On Discrete Choice Model And Countermeasure Analysis

In order to adapt to the characteristics of urban traffic,new road setting methods such as tidal lanes emerge as the times require,which has become an important research topic in the field of transportation.Although tidal lanes have been rapidly developed and applied in recent years,they have not been widely accepted by drivers.The setting of tidal lanes causes dynamic changes in the direction of traffic flow.Due to factors such as the driver’s own factors,cognitive situation,experience and hesitant judgment,the actual utilization of tidal lanes may be lower than other lanes.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to promote the development of tidal lanes in China by analyzing the influencing factors of drivers’ willingness to use tidal lanes and putting forward targeted improvement suggestions.First,on the basis of the basic theoretical analysis of tidal lanes,the factors that affect the willingness to use tidal lanes are expounded,and the questionnaire is designed from three aspects:personal attributes,latent variable attributes of tidal lane use intentions,and selection of scenario assumptions.A total of 737 valid questionnaires were collected from the online survey.Through the test,the Cronbach’s Alpha value of the data is greater than 0.7,the KMO value is greater than0.7,the Bartlett’s value is less than 0.5,the VIF value is less than 10,the absolute value of the skewness coefficient is less than 1,the absolute value of the kurtosis coefficient is less than 10 and data are tested for reliability,validity,multicollinearity and normalityt.Therefore,the data can be analyzed using structural equation models and discrete choice models.In addition,construct the structural equation model of the willingness to use the tidal lane,the latent variables,observed variables,and the relationship between the latent variables are set.The model is evaluated and corrected.Results obtain a structural equation model with a better fit.The thesis analyze the model load coefficient.It lays the groundwork for the analysis of the random parameter Logit with latent variables and the latent category Logit model analysis with latent variables.Secondly,the random parameter Logit model and the latent class Logit model are constructed,and the polynomial Logit model,the random parameter Logit model and the latent class Logit model are compared and analyzed,and only the personal attributes and the model estimation results when adding latent variables are considered.The research shows that the model fitting effect of adding latent variables is better than the model fitting effect that only considers personal attributes,and the random parameter Logit model and latent class Logit model considering heterogeneity are better than the polynomial Logit model that does not consider heterogeneity.The effect is good,and the performance of latent class Logit model heterogeneity is better than random parameter Logit model.The results using the average marginal effect analysis show that for each level of perceived risk,the probability of choosing to use a tidal lane decreased by 20.13%.For each level of behavioral attitude,the choice of willingness to use tidal lanes increased by 4.59%.For Each level of social influence increases the probability of choosing a willingness to use a tidal lane by16.00%.Finally,taking Yunlongshan Road,Jianye District,Nanjing City as an example,the basic traffic data is investigated on the spot.The tidal lane setting scheme is designed,and the VISSIM simulation is carried out considering the actual use intention obtained by the investigation and analysis.This thesis compares and analyzes the lane occupancy rate and travel time.The results show that,the usage rate of the tidal lane setting is not high,which will waste road space resources,and the travel time of vehicles on the road will not be reduced.According to the analysis results of the average marginal effect,from three latent variables with significant influence,an incentive strategy to improve the willingness to use tidal lanes is proposed,and optimization is proposed from three aspects: road marking design,auxiliary signal control light design and navigation voice prompt design.Design scheme to improve the willingness to use tidal lanes and provide reference for the development and implementation of tidal lanes.