Study On Spatial Differentiation Pattern And Prediction Of Residential Land Price In Zhengzhou City Center

Land involves the national economy and people’s livelihood.The limitation of land supply and the expansion of the demand for land by population growth and economic development determine the deepening contradiction between land supply and demand.Land price is the specific expression of land value and rights and interests,which can directly and quickly reflect the relationship between land supply and demand.Land price plays an increasingly important role in optimizing the allocation of land resources and adjusting the direction of urban land use.And the residential land price is very important to the real estate market,which is related to the interests and happiness of the people.At present,Zhengzhou has entered the ranks of cities with a population of 10 million.With the rapid economic development and continuous population gathering,housing demand increases and land supply is in short supply.As a whole,the residential land price in the central urban area of Zhengzhou shows an obvious trend of increasing over time.However,the growth trend of overall land price level cannot cover up the unbalanced development of internal residential land price,and the growth rate also presents obvious spatial differences.Therefore,on the basis of considering the actual spatial differences of land price,land price growth rate and land price influencing factors in the city,this paper explores the distribution pattern of residential land price in the downtown of Zhengzhou and divides the mean area through spatial conversion of residential land price data and interpolation methods.The future trend of land price is predicted by two models of Grey Markov and BP neural network.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Spatial distribution characteristics of residential land prices and division of average value areas.This paper first analyzes the spatial evolution of historical residential land prices,and then uses the Kriging spatial interpolation method on the basis of exploratory spatial data analysis to further identify the spatial distribution pattern of residential land prices in the central urban area of Zhengzhou.Provide a basis for the forecast of residential land prices.Based on the spatial analysis,it is concluded that the residential land price in the central urban area of Zhengzhou shows a trend of high in the northeast and low in the southwest,and the gradient of land prices in the east-west direction is higher than that in the north-south direction.The peak center of residential land price is relatively single,and the land price surface shows a jumping distribution.The middle and high-value areas are scattered around the high-value areas,forming multiple land price sub-centers.At the same time,from the perspective of administrative regions,Jinshui District has the highest land price level,followed by Guancheng Hui Race District.The other three administrative regions have relatively low land prices,mainly covered by low-value and medium-low-value areas.(2)Application of residential land price prediction model.Based on the quantitative analysis of the historical change law of residential land price and its influencing factors,grey Markov model and BP neural network model are constructed to predict residential land price respectively.The results show that the grey Markov model has poor prediction effect due to the fluctuation of land price.However,it shows better fitting accuracy when the amount of data is small and the fluctuation is small.With the support of land price correlation factors,BP neural network model has lower relative error through multiple training and fitting.Therefore,the predicted value of BP neural network model is selected as the final result.(3)Analysis of future changes of residential land price.According to the prediction results,this paper analyzes the change trend of residential land price in the future from the perspectives of growth rate and differential change.The results show that:(1)from the perspective of average annual growth rate,the overall residential land price in the central urban area of Zhengzhou will show an upward trend in the future.Compared with 2015-2020,medium and low value areas and medium and high value areas have greater growth potential;The average annual land price increase in high-value areas has slowed down compared with the previous five years.In addition,there will be little difference in the average annual growth of each administrative region in the next five years.The residential land price level in Huiji district is the lowest,but the growth rate is the fastest in the whole region.The residential land price of Jinshui District and Guancheng Hui District has a large room to rise.The average annual growth of Guancheng Hui District in the next five years will rise the most compared with the previous five years,maintaining a high growth vitality.(2)From the different changes of residential land prices in different units.In the next five years,the gap between other mean value areas and high value areas is still obvious,but with the increase of time,this gap will gradually decrease.At the same time,the medium and high value areas will gradually open the distance from the median area and approach the high value area.In addition,the variation coefficient of residential land price among administrative regions is declining,indicating that the degree of equilibrium will gradually improve,but the decline rate of variation coefficient will be reduced from 11.22%in 2021 to 5.58% in 2025,indicating that there is a certain limit to the reduction of residential land price gap among administrative regions.