Research On Fire Evacuation Risk Assessment For Commercial Complexes Based On Parameter Randomness

In recent years,building fire accidents have been frequent in China,posing a serious threat to people’s lives and safety and property.As a new type of urban economic aggregate,commercial complexes have the characteristics of large scale,complex layout,and high density of people.When a fire breaks out,it is difficult to evacuate people,the risk is high,and it is easy to cause casualties.Therefore,fire safety control of commercial complexes is a top priority.Fire evacuation risk assessment is an important part of the fire safety management of commercial complexes,and the accuracy of the assessment results directly affects the refinement level of fire safety management of commercial complexes.Therefore,this thesis systematically studies the fire evacuation risk assessment method of commercial complexes based on the randomness of simulation parameters,so as to provide a theoretical basis for accurately quantifying the risk differences of different fire evacuation scenarios and improving the level of emergency evacuation management.Firstly,the fire evacuation risk of the commercial complex is analyzed from two perspectives of the fire development process and the evacuation process,and its influence on the evacuation simulation results is analyzed for the parameter randomness problem in the evacuation simulation process.Secondly,according to the theory of fire evacuation simulation,combined with the characteristics of commercial complexes,Pyro Sim and Pathfinder are selected as fire evacuation simulation software to establish a fire evacuation simulation model,and determine the key parameters and their values in the fire evacuation simulation.Then,using the literature survey method,on the basis of summarizing the relevant literature at home and abroad at the present stage,according to the characteristics of commercial complex fire evacuation and the type of simulation software output results,a commercial complex fire evacuation risk assessment index system is established;for the parameter randomness in the evacuation process In order to avoid the noise interference generated by the simulation results,Central Limit Theorem(CLT)is used as a method for parameter randomness analysis and simulation result noise reduction,and combined with the statistical inference function of Kernel Density Estimates(KDE),a simulation result noise reduction model based on KDE-CLT is designed;at the same time,combined with the evaluation index Features,an improved CRITIC weighting method is designed to determine the weight of the index,and the fire evacuation risk of the commercial complex is calculated in a weighted manner.Finally,a case study of a commercial complex was carried out,and a fire evacuation scenario was designed in combination with the actual situation.The simulation was carried out using Pyro Sim and Pathfinder software.Aiming at the randomness of parameters in the evacuation simulation process,the evacuation scenario was simulated 130 times repeatedly,and the fire evacuation scenario The results of repeated simulations are applied to the proposed evaluation method.By analyzing the noise reduction results and risk assessment results,the accuracy and applicability of the proposed method are verified,and the evaluation method with Available Safe Evacuation Time(ASET)and Required Safe Evacuation Time(RSET)as the criterion is compared to illustrate the comprehensiveness of the proposed method;at the same time,to solve the congestion problem for the personnel in the fire evacuation scenario,a layered delayed evacuation optimization method is proposed.By analyzing the fire scenario,the delayed evacuation floor is determined,and the effectiveness of the optimization method is verified by comparing the layered delayed evacuation scenario with the overall evacuation scenario.