Research On The Path Of Coal Power Transformation In Northwest China

The speed of China’s economic development has attracted worldwide attention.The rapid economic development is accompanied by more energy consumption,and the burning of fossil fuels has also caused a series of environmental pollution and climate change issues.Under the influence of environmental policies such as the Paris Agreement and the "dual carbon" goal,China is under increasing pressure to conserve energy and reduce emissions.Electric power is an important secondary clean energy in China,and the production process is often accompanied by the consumption of coal,oil,and natural gas.The electric power industry has also become one of the sectors with the largest carbon dioxide emissions in China.Therefore,there is an urgent need to explore how to reasonably plan coal power installations,control greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant emissions,and achieve a clean energy transformation of power supply.Northwest China is an important strategic region in China,with good renewable energy power generation conditions.In the future,it will shoulder the responsibilities related to energy supply and power supply.It is necessary to make reasonable predictions and plan the power structure,ensure the safety of power supply,and promote the coordinated development of energy,environment,and social economy.Firstly,the research progress related to power demand forecasting.comprehensive evaluation methods of power sources,and transformation decision-making methods are described.Secondly,briefly introduce power demand forecasting and power planning methods,and select appropriate methods to build power demand forecasting models and power planning models.Based on the current situation and potential development of electric power in the region under study,fully consider the development trend of future electricity consumption and transmission,and reasonably predict and set various parameters of the electricity balance model.Then,according to the comprehensive evaluation method of coal power,the micro power plants are evaluated and ranked.Finally,a numerical example of northwest China is analyzed,and based on the interactive decision-making model for coal power transformation,the path of coal power transformation in northwest China under the 2020 to 2060 dual carbon target is simulated.The results show that the overall level of coal power units in the northwest region is relatively high,and relying on high-quality coal power support to achieve the future development of the northwest region to a "wind,water,fire,and storage integration" power base.The integration of coal and electricity resources should be continuously promoted from 2021-2025 to achieve volume control and efficiency improvement.From 2025 to 2035,fully tap the potential for energy conservation and emission reduction,and accelerate the lowcarbon transformation of coal power.After 2035,with the rapid development of onshore wind power,centralized photovoltaic,and photothermal power,coal power gradually accelerated its withdrawal,and BECCS transformation achieved large-scale development.In 2050,a certain scale of coal-fired power units that have completed the BECCS transformation will be retained to provide negative carbon.Based on the planning results,this paper proposes to promote demand side management and energy-saving actions to ensure the balance between power supply and demand;Deepen the reform of electricity pricing mechanism and other policy recommendations.Using the method of comprehensive resource strategic planning model,research on power planning in the northwest region is conducted to achieve optimal allocation of power resources in the northwest region,and further propose relevant policy recommendations,hoping to provide a certain reference basis for relevant power decision-making departments.