Guiding Mechanism And Optimization Of Residents’ Smart Electricity Usage Behavior Based On User Portrait

With the continuous improvement of China’s energy consumption structure,the results of energy conservation and efficiency improvement in the primary,secondary and tertiary industries have been very obvious,and the growth momentum of energy consumption has been slowed down at present.Due to the improvement of the living standard of China’s residents,the current residents’ domestic electricity consumption has increased significantly year by year,which has huge energy saving potential,and is an important direction to ultimately achieve better energy conservation and emission reduction.In recent years,with the changes in China’s energy supply and demand reform,the development of energy Internet smart grid construction and the further promotion of household smart appliances,smart electricity has entered the public’s vision.How to guide residents’ orderly and smart electricity usage behavior can not only improve the economy and comfort of residents’ electricity usage,but also promote the important direction of energy conservation and emission reduction on the residents’ side.In addition,it can also further ensure the smooth realization of China’s energy conservation and emission reduction and the goal of "carbon peak,carbon neutral".As the main research part of the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Research on the Impact Mechanism of Residents’ Smart Electricity Usage Behavior and Orderly Guidance and Management Mechanism Simulation(72071077)",this paper takes the residents’smart electricity usage behavior and the policy management mechanism of orderly guidance as the research object,and specifically studies four aspects,respectively:(1)The paper analyzed and drawn the user portrait of residents’ electricity usage behavior.Based on the consideration of users’ heterogeneity characteristics,this paper analyzed the factors that affect residents’ smart electricity usage behavior,and designed the labels of user portraits.On this basis,the paper built a database containing labels of residents’ electricity usage values,personal age,education background,income,electricity usage habits and residents’acceptance of smart appliances.And then,the visualization of user portrait is realized through the program base on the user database.(2)The paper constructed structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the influence of residents’ smart electricity usage behavior factors.Based on the labels of the above user portraits,the paper combined with the theory of planned behavior(TPB)and the theory of value belief norm(VBN),and designed a questionnaire for residents’ smart electricity usage behavior.And then,the paper cleaned,counted and analyzed the data obtained from the survey,and put forward the research assumptions.In the Finish,the paper solved and verified the structural equation model by AMOS software,and obtained the impact mechanism of residents’ smart electricity usage behavior.(3)The paper constructed the analytical model of residents’ smart appliance usage choice behavior based on Nested-Logit.Based on the analysis conclusion of SEM,the overall structure of the household electric appliance selection function is constructed according to the significant influence relationship.Secondly,based on the usage characteristics of different smart appliances,the paper constructed the second level of smart electric lamp,smart washing machine,smart refrigerator,smart air conditioner use and smart electric vehicle charging choice behavior model.Through the correlation analysis and parameter calibration of various factors affecting the residents’ choice,the paper solved and verified the model,and then obtained the overall prediction structure of residents’ smart electricity usage behavior and the guidance mechanism for smart appliances usage.(4)The paper constructed system dynamics simulation model to simulation the policy optimization mechanism in order to orderly guide residents’ smart electricity usage behavior.Using the means of system dynamics modeling and simulation,the paper combined with the research results and analytical functions of the first two points,then simulated the policy impact mechanism of residents’ electricity usage behavior guidance.In the finish,the policy parameters are optimized and adjusted through simulation,the results of dynamic evolution are obtained,and the combined guidance mechanism to guide residents’ electricity usage behavior is given.The above research has formed a user portrait of residents’ electricity usage behavior,analyzed the main factors of residents’ usage of smart appliances,obtained the relevant mechanism to guide residents’ smart electricity usage,and optimized the policy guidance mechanism of residents’ electricity usage through simulation,and gave relevant suggestions.It is expected to provide a basis for guiding management mechanism decision-making to support China to achieve green ecological sustainable development on the residential side,achieve efficient energy conservation and emission reduction,and better achieve the goal of "carbon neutral and carbon peak".