Research On The Behavior Decision Making Of Power Producers Under The Combined Effect Of Carbon And Green Certificate Market

With the proposal of the goal of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking,it has become a foreseeable trend to build a new power system based on wind and solar new energy.In order to promote low-carbon transformation of the power system,China is gradually promoting the construction of a national carbon market,green certificate market,and a unified national electricity market.Carbon Emissions Trading(CET)and Tradeable Green Certificates(TGC)are considered effective tools for controlling carbon emissions.However,how to analyze the actual effectiveness of these parallel low-carbon policy measures on power generation companies is a new issue that needs to be studied,especially considering the overlapping redundancy of their implementation plans.The two will have an impact on the behavior of members of the power generation side market,and thus have a complex joint effect on China’s electricity market.This article conducts research on the behavior decision-making of power generation companies under the joint effect of the carbon green certificate market.At the theoretical analysis level,this paper studies and establishes a general equilibrium theory model of the linkage between carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading under the condition of China’s electricity market.The first step is to use the China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis(CEEPA)model to analyze the efficiency of carbon trading mechanisms under different regulatory forces in the power industry,which has the best operating effect in a completely free market and serves as the market hypothesis for the entire text.The second step is to capture the internal price relationship between CET,TGC and the electricity market through the general equilibrium theory model theory,establish the variable relationship between the markets with the price as the link,and derive the linkage relationship between green card price,carbon electricity price,and carbon green card price using the conditions of equilibrium state.At the model design level,this article uses the System Dynamics Method(SD)to analyze the advantages of complex systems with multiple feedbacks and quantitatively evaluate the impact of various market endogenous variables on power generation companies in complex systems.When making investment decisions on power generation capacity,power producers need to consider the realtime impact of the combined effect of carbon green certification,in addition to the supply and demand levels in the electricity market.Therefore,based on feedback theory,the effects of various variables in different markets are visualized to form a causal loop diagram.Taking into account the investment behavior and price transmission mechanism of market participants on the power generation side,the endogenous variables are classified as state variables,rate variables,constants,and auxiliary variables.Based on this,functional relationships are constructed to describe the effects of different market variables on power generation companies.Further establish an SD model for the interaction between carbon trading,green certificate trading,and electricity trading markets.The proposed model quantitatively analyzes the long-term trends of complex market systems on a monthly time scale,exploring the long-term impact of dual policy coordination on power generation company decision-making.At the level of simulation analysis and policy recommendations,this article conducts simulations based on actual data from China in 2020,obtaining evolution results that fit the actual scenario.It sorts out the decision-making behavior of power generation companies during the evolution process,conducts trend analysis,and provides policy recommendations.Based on the current process of electricity marketization reform in China,the 2020 China time data was selected as the initial value,and Vensim software was used for model programming,parameter assignment,and simulation to analyze the dynamic evolution process of multiple markets.Analyze the impact of policies on power generation plans and capacity investments of power producers through price transmission in scenarios where different single and dual mechanisms collaborate.Based on actual simulation results,it can be seen that the trend of changes in core endogenous variables over the past decade,and the comprehensive effect of the dual market mechanism can be quantitatively analyzed from two levels:economic decision-making by market participants and energy structure on the power generation side.Based on the analysis results,it is proven that the collaborative implementation of TGC and CET policies has alleviated the pressure of renewable energy fiscal deficits;Promote the transformation of energy structure on the power generation side by influencing investment decisions of different types of power generation companies;Proposed relevant policy recommendations for renewable energy quota system(RPS)and carbon trading.which will help improve the coordination of policies under the future new power system,safeguard the interests of power generation companies,and avoid traditional thermal power companies from bearing excessive emission reduction pressure.The aim is to provide theoretical support for low-carbon policy design and long-term carbon green certification electricity market construction.