Study On The Crowd Evacuation Behavior Model Considering Panic Emotion

With the proceeding of urbanization,more and more people are pouring into cities,and the gathering frequency of high-density people in public places has been increasing.It is worth noting that the crowd will feel panic normally during the evacuation process in the face of an earthquake,fire,terrorist attack or other emergencies.Pedestrians affected by the panic would make some irrational evacuation behaviors,which may cause crush and stampede to worsen the situation,so it is a severe threat to the lives of people.Hence,it is vital to evacuate the crowd affected by the panic safely and quickly when an emergency occurs.However,limited by the complexity and risk of crowd panic evacuation issue,the current research on this issue is still in its infancy,and further in-depth research is needed in many aspects.With the improvement of computer technology in recent years,modeling simulation has become the most important method to study crowd panic evacuation issue.Therefore,in order to further understand the deep meaning of crowd panic in the evacuation process,this thesis combines multidisciplinary knowledge and establishes evacuation models based on actual evacuation behavior and phenomena.Then the proposed models are used to study the characteristics of crowd evacuation behavior and movement laws considering panic emotion.The main innovative work of this thesis is as follows:(1)Some representative models of the macroscopic model and microscopic model are selected,and the modeling concepts and basic forms of each model are introduced.After analyzing and comparing the advantages and disadvantages of each model,the evacuation model suitable for the study of crowd panic evacuation is determined.Besides,the theoretical research on crowd panic and behavior characteristics under emergencies is conducted.First,the meaning,causes and related theoretical models of panic are analyzed.Then the characteristics of individual and group evacuation behavior under the influence of panic are summarized.Next,the subjective and objective factors that affect crowd panic are explored.(2)The behavioral characteristics of attacker and pedestrians in the context of artificial attacks are analyzed.Furthermore,various factors such as pedestrian panic,evacuation strategies of pedestrians with different panic level,decision making and attack behavior of attacker,pedestrian casualties are considered,and then a crowd panic evacuation behavior model under artificial attack threat is proposed.(3)For various emergencies,the fact that pedestrians with different personality traits may have different responses to emotion is considered,and the similarity between emotional contagion and infectious disease transmission is analyzed.Besides,combining the theories of the OCEAN model and the SIS model,the dynamic characteristics of panic and the influence of panic on pedestrian evacuation decision-making are studied,and then a crowd panic evacuation behavior model considering personality traits and emotional characteristics is proposed.(4)The visual programming of the models is realized based on Matlab software,and the influence of different factors on the crowd panic evacuation by changing the values of different key parameters is simulated and analyzed.The simulation results show that the models have rationality and application value to some extent,which can reproduce the true characteristics of crowd panic evacuation behaviors,and effectively reveal the dynamical mechanism of crowd panic.This thesis studies the crowd panic evacuation issue,and the proposed models can be used as an auxiliary tool for safe evacuation control and emergency decision-making in the management department.Furthermore,the simulation conclusions can help reduce casualties and property losses caused by group panic behavior,and also can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the formulation of evacuation strategies.There are 47 figures,5 tables,and 101 references.