Research On The Formation Mechanism And Countermeasures Of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry Shakeouts

As a strategic emerging industry,the new energy vehicle industry is critical to solving environmental and energy dilemmas.However,the phenomenon of industry shakeouts can bring huge negative impacts to strategic emerging industries.Existing studies have mostly analyzed industry shakeouts from an overall perspective,without judging the future development trend and analyzing the internal correlations between industries.Therefore,in order to prevent industry shakeouts from hindering the healthy development of the industry,this paper studies the trend of shakeouts in new energy vehicle industry and its formation mechanism from the perspective of the internal feedback relationship between industries from the perspective of the industry chain.This paper uses the system dynamics method to build a whole industry chain model of "lithium-ion battery-new energy vehicle" to predict the trend of future shakeouts in new energy vehicle industry,and analyze the causes and specific paths of the shakeouts according to the cause-effect cycle.On the basis of this,scenario simulations are conducted to find the most effective factors to mitigate the industry shakeouts.The study found that,firstly,the new energy vehicle industry will experience three more industry shakeouts under the benchmark scenario,with the most violent shakeouts in the middle of the industry development,and the shakeouts gradually weakening as the industry matures.Second,policy factors such as subsidies,technology innovation,market access scale,and capital investment scale are important causes of industry shakeouts in new energy vehicle industry.The first three factors indirectly control the new energy vehicles supply by controlling the capacity and price of new energy vehicles,which in turn triggers industry shakeouts,while the capital investment scale acts directly on the supply of new energy vehicles,causing them to undergo industry shakeouts.Again,the scenario simulation found that adjusting policy factors can mitigate industry shakeouts,but the mitigation effect of each factor varies in different periods.In the early stage of industry development,technology innovation has the best mitigating effect,and after the industry has matured,the market investment scale becomes the best mitigating factor.From the perspective of the whole industry chain,adjusting the subsidy regression rate and annual market access scale will not negatively affect the upstream lithiumion battery industry while effectively reducing the downstream new energy vehicle industry shakeouts.However,technology innovation and adjusting the annual capital investment scale will exacerbate upstream lithium-ion battery industry shakeouts while reducing new energy vehicle industry shakeouts.Finally,policy recommendations to promote the healthy and stable development of the new energy vehicle industry are proposed based on the realistic implications of each scenario,which also have certain implications for other strategic emerging industries.