A System Dynamics-based Study Of Resilience In Old Communities In Beijing

In recent years,public safety incidents such as "black swans" and "grey rhinoceroses" have occurred frequently.As a fundamental unit of the urban system,communities have become the most direct bearers of casualties,social and economic imbalances,and environmental damage.The existing residential areas in China have been built early,have a large number,and are densely distributed.When they are impacted by risks,their resilience,recovery,and adaptability are relatively fragile.There is a lack of comprehensive,systematic,and standardized research on community resilience.Improving the resilience level of old urban communities,stimulating bottom-up internal motivation,and enhancing social cohesion have gradually become a hot topic in community resilience research.Based on the resilience theory,combined with the guidance of resilient city construction in Beijing,taking Community Governance and disaster prevention and reduction as the starting point,this study defines the concept of resilience of old communities,analyzes the current situation of old communities in Beijing,constructs the resilience index system of old communities in Beijing,identifies the driving factors,establishes the resilience system dynamics model of old communities in Beijing,and deeply analyzes the correlation between systems and trend prediction,Through simulation analysis,effective strategies for improving the resilience of old communities in Beijing are proposed.Firstly,this thesis combines resilience research theory and analyzes domestic and foreign literature to sort out the concept of community resilience and the current research status of community resilience theory,defining the scope of this thesis’ s research on old community resilience.We have clarified the types and renovation policies of old communities in Beijing,and analyzed their vulnerability in four aspects: spatial resources,engineering resources,management resources,and social resources based on the composition of the community’s "people things places things organizations".Secondly,based on the vulnerability analysis of old communities in Beijing,the components of resilience in old communities were determined through literature research and expert scoring.From four dimensions: community members,social networks,buildings and facilities,and disaster prevention and emergency response,15 secondary indicators and 49 quantifiable tertiary indicators were sorted out,forming a resilience indicator system for old communities.By optimizing the indicator system,the boundaries of system modeling were determined.The causal loop diagram drawn based on system dynamics simulation clearly reflects the interaction paths between various driving factors of the old community resilience system.Furthermore,a system inventory flow chart was drawn to distinguish the types of variables in different indicators,forming the old community resilience system dynamics model.Finally,this study selected a case study of an old community in Xicheng District,Beijing,and conducted sensitivity analysis by verifying the effectiveness of the simulation model and adjusting the controllable variables in the model.A dynamic model of community resilience system was constructed under different scenarios.By analyzing the changes in different resilience factors,it can be concluded that controlling population density,increasing per capita disposable income of community members,and reasonably planning to increase per capita green space area,Effectively improving the number of beds per thousand permanent residents has a significant impact on the overall resilience of old communities,and the resilience level shows an increasing trend with the trend of these factors.Encouraging residents to strengthen the reserves of life-saving,lifestyle,and medical materials,enhancing interaction and communication within the community,and enhancing trust among community members can effectively enhance the resilience of the community network,smooth the resource exchange path of the community system,make reasonable use of redundant space to increase the per capita refuge area,encourage communities to carry out multiple disaster prevention drills and emergency training,improve the resilience literacy of community members,and effectively enhance the overall resilience level of old communities.Improving the resilience of old communities in Beijing requires government guidance and support,while encouraging social organizations and capital to participate in the resilience construction of old communities,enhancing the resilience literacy of community members,and enhancing the adaptability and organization of the community resilience system.