Analysis On The Effect Of The Opening Of The Arctic Shipping Routes On The Traditional Shipping Routes

Arctic sea ice is melting more quickly as the world’s climate continues to change,and the amount of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean is decreasing year by year.The melting of Arctic sea ice has boosted the likelihood of commercial operations in the shipping channels.The opening of the Arctic shipping routes can significantly decrease the sailing miles between Europe,Asia,and the Americas when compared to traditional shipping routes,which will lower the cost of passage and benefit commercial ships.Moreover,a shorter sailing distance might result in a shorter sailing period,giving the cargo more value in terms of time and allowing the ship and its resources to experience higher turnover rates.Also,it has been established that the Arctic region contains abundant energy sources,and the Arctic shipping route is probably going to develop into a significant energy corridor in the future.As a result,once the Arctic shipping route resumes regular operations in the future,it will become a crucial axial route with implications for current shipping routes.To provide theoretical support for China’s future development and use of the Arctic,this article tries to explore the implications of the Arctic shipping route on the traditional shipping routes once it was operated all year round.The study background,significance,substance,technical framework,and potential novel elements of the essay are all introduced in the first chapter’s introductory part.The economics of the Arctic shipping channels,the state of navigation now,and the effects of the Arctic shipping lanes on the regular shipping lanes upon their opening are all covered in Chapter 2.The theoretical underpinnings part also covers the substitution effect,complementing effect,and stochastic user equilibrium model.As a realistic foundation for the remaining contents,the third chapter compiles the present state of global shipping,the current state of Arctic canal construction and usage,as well as the shifting trend of Arctic sea ice.The mechanism of how the opening of the Arctic shipping routes will affect the traditional shipping routes is qualitatively analyzed in Chapter 4.This mechanism is primarily realized through the substitution and complementary effects that the Arctic shipping routes will have on the traditional shipping routes.A Logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model is used in Chapter 5 to quantitatively examine the cargo flow share between the Northeast Passage and the traditional route in the maritime market from Northeast Asia to Northwest Europe in the future,after the Northeast Passage is open to navigation year-round.The larger the proportion of the distribution flow of the Northeast Route,the bigger the effect produced by the opening of the Arctic Passage,and the more three scenarios—an rise in fuel prices,a change in time value,and a change in perception of cost—are set up to simulate potential future changes in the distribution flow of the Northeast Arctic shipping route.The study found that,when open year-round,the Northeast Passage of the Arctic has a greater annual flow allocation ratio than the conventional route through the Suez Canal.The distribution ratio of the Northeast Passage is related to the season.Compared to the ice-covered season,ships can maintain faster speed and reduce ice breaking cost during the ice-free season,thus the distribution ratio of the Northeast Passage in the ice-free season is higher than that in the ice-covered season.However,even in the ice-covered season,the distribution ratio is higher than that of the Suez Canal Route.The Northeast Passage percentage rises with the latitude of the chosen port,which also enhances how obvious its geographic advantage is.Therefore,in the future,the opening of the entire line of the Arctic shipping routes will draw some of the cargo flow along the traditional shipping routes,increasing the number of ships passing through the Arctic shipping routes,increasing its status,decreasing the number of ships traveling along the traditional shipping routes,and shifting the geographic center of global trade.The Arctic shipping route is more competitive in high-latitude ports,so cargo flow from high-latitude ports flows more to the Arctic shipping route and is more strongly influenced by the radiation effect of the Arctic shipping route.The Arctic shipping route also attracts cargo flow more strongly during the ice-free season and has a more obvious influence on traditional shipping routes.There are recommendations for the future development of the Arctic in China in the article’s conclusion.A platform for international exchange should be established to give China a voice in Arctic affairs,and cooperation with the Arctic-rim countries should be strengthened.At the same time,active use of the Arctic shipping route should be pursued in order to gain experience for its full utilization in the future,given the potential for its development and utilization in the future and China’s inherent geographic disadvantage compared to the Arctic-rim countries.