Regional Shrinkage Characteristics,influencing Factors And Coping Strategies Of The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

In recent years,along with the rapid urbanization of China,a large number of people from the countryside have entered the cities and the population has accelerated to concentrate in the cities,especially the big cities.This is accompanied by rapid ageing,with some parts of China already entering an ageing society.The unbalanced development of regions,the relative depletion of resources,the imbalance of economic structure and the outflow of population and ageing have led to the phenomenon of population and economic contraction in some parts of China,and have aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.The Central Plains urban agglomeration is in a stage of rapid urbanization,and at the same time,with an ageing population and a large scale of population movement between urban and rural areas and cities,it is also an important population outflow area.the resident population of the Central Plains urban agglomeration will be more than 164 million in 2020,compared to 189 million in 2017,with a decrease in the resident population of the urban agglomeration,the natural growth rate of China’s resident population will turn negative in 2022,indicating that the total population of China may reach the peak in advance of schedule,and the population development will enter a new stage.In this context,the population growth pattern of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration has become one of the important factors influencing the future development of the region.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to identify the characteristics and influencing factors of population growth in the urban agglomerations for their development.Using 214 counties and districts in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration as the research unit,the shrinking regions in the two periods of 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 are identified based on population data,and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the regional shrinkage of the urban agglomeration in the two periods of 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 are analyzed at the scale of urban areas and counties(county-level cities).The main influencing factors of the regional contraction in the two periods were screened using a geographic probe,and the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing effects of each factor was analyzed by means of a geographically weighted regression model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The number and extent of regional contraction differed in different periods.from 2000 to2010,both urban areas and counties(county-level cities)contracted insignificantly,and there was no significant spatial autocorrelation.from 2010 to 2020,the number and extent of urban contraction grew insignificantly,while the number and extent of county(county-level cities)contraction grew intensively;from 2010 to 2020,the regional contraction of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration was There is a significant correlation in the spatial pattern.The high-high value agglomeration areas in the shrinking areas of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration are mainly located in counties that are geographically remote and have a low level of economic development;the number of high-low value agglomeration types is relatively small and their spatial distribution is more dispersed;the proportion of low-high value agglomeration areas is low and their spatial distribution is more concentrated;the spatial distribution of low-low value agglomeration types is relatively large and their spatial distribution is mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration.(2)The influencing factors of regional contraction in the two periods are mainly social and economic factors.From 2000 to 2010,the influencing factors that passed the significance test were GDP per capita,gender ratio,public budget revenue,share of secondary industry in GDP,number of health care beds,public budget expenditure,and administrative rank,among which the q-values of budget expenditure and gender ratio indicators ranked the highest,indicating that economic and demographic structures have a great influence on the region,and the number of health care beds the smallest q-value indicates that health care conditions have a weaker impact on regional contraction.From 2010 to 2020,the factors that passed the significance test were GDP,public budget revenue,public budget expenditure,the proportion of population aged 15-64,the proportion of population aged 65 or above,and administrative rank,with the q-values of the indicators of administrative rank and public budget revenue ranking in the top,indicating that these two influencing factors have a greater impact on the regional contraction of the Central Plains urban agglomeration.The analysis of spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors of regional contraction by means of a geographically weighted regression model reveals that the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors of population aged 15-64 and regional administrative rank is stronger,while the Central Plains urban agglomeration region as a whole shows the spatial distribution characteristics of the weaker role of each influencing factor in the eastern region.(3)Through the analysis of the influencing factors,the 131 contraction regions in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2010 to 2020 can be classified into six categories: economic development lagging contraction regions,public budget revenue-led contraction regions,public budget expenditure-led contraction regions,labor force-led contraction regions,population ageing-led contraction regions,and administrative rank-led contraction regions.On the basis of the above classification,and taking into account the relevant policies issued by the state and the actual social and economic background of the development of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,different development countermeasures are proposed: the economic development level of the contracting region should be improved for the lagging economic development dominant type;the scale and quality of fiscal budget revenue should be improved for the public budget revenue dominant type,and the methods and paths of increasing quantity and improving quality should be explored;the public budget expenditure dominant type should to optimize the expenditure structure and improve the fiscal budget management;to emphasize the introduction and cultivation of talents and promote the high-quality development of the region for the dominant population age structure;to strengthen the government concept and guidance for the overall development of the shrinking region,and to propose targeted strategies.