| At present,China is in the stage of rapid urbanization,and cities are the products of the objective laws of social and natural development.When cities develop to a certain extent,they will form a form of organization in space,which is urban agglomeration.As a huge complex system,cities are inevitably affected by various uncertain disturbances and unknown risks in their development.With industrialization,human activities increasingly encroach on ecological resources,intensify energy consumption and accumulate carbon emissions,resulting in global resource crisis,climate warming,increased extreme weather and frequent disasters;urban development will inevitably cause population concentration and produce traffic congestion,environmental pollution,Urban development will inevitably lead to population concentration,traffic congestion,environmental pollution,resource shortage and other urban diseases;uncertain public health emergencies will also bring unexpected impacts to cities.The emergence of the concept of urban resilience is expected to help cities proactively address uncertainties and prevent them before they occur.However,the ability of different cities to cope with crises and disturbances varies greatly,and the resilience gap within urban agglomerations at the early stage of development is also obvious.In order to improve the overall resilience of urban agglomerations,minimize the negative impact of various adverse factors on urban agglomerations,and achieve sustainable urban development.Based on the theoretical basis of urban resilience,this paper constructs an urban resilience evaluation index system in four dimensions:economic,social,ecological,and infrastructure;In the context of the policy of revitalization of central China,the city cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,which is in the early stage of development,was selected as the object of study,and the urban resilience index of the urban agglomeration during the ten-year period from 2011 to 2020 is measured by using the combination of assignment method and comprehensive index method to explore its temporal evolution pattern and Finally,we applied the barrier degree model and geographic detector model to identify the barriers to urban resilience development and the drivers of spatial variation in urban resilience.The research results show that:(1)the overall urban resilience of the middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration has steadily improved and developed well from 2011 to 2020;the level of urban resilience within the urban agglomeration is uneven and the gap has expanded;economic resilience and infrastructure resilience dominate the urban resilience system;the urban resilience of Hubei Province and Hunan Province is close and cross-change during the decade,and the resilience of Jiangxi Province is the lowest;the urban resilience within the urban agglomeration There is a big difference in resilience and an obvious differentiation pattern,with high values of resilience in ten years concentrated in Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang provincial capitals,and a cliff-like gap between non-capital cities and provincial capitals.(2)Highly resilient cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are distributed in clusters around the Yangtze,Han,Xiang and Gan rivers,which have well-developed water systems;low toughness cities are scattered in the central,western and peripheral parts of the urban agglomeration,and the toughness gap between regions is large;the toughness polarization is obvious,and the dependence on individual high toughness cities is high;the differences in toughness levels are significant,and the differences tend to be smaller year by year,showing the evolution of concentration The city grouping characteristics are obvious,and the spatial distribution is diversified,forming the concave situation of Wuhan metropolitan area,the circle radiating situation of Changzhutan metropolitan area,and the linear tandem situation of Nanchang metropolitan area;the global spatial autocorrelation of city group comprehensive toughness value is not significant,and there is no obvious spatial agglomeration effect for the time being,and the spatial heterogeneity is obvious.The cities with high economic resilience are distributed in a dotted pattern,and their resilience contribution rate is large;the cities with high social resilience are distributed along the Beijing-Guangzhou town belt and Shanghai-Kunming town belt in a "ten" pattern,and their resilience contribution rate is medium;the cities with high ecological resilience are mainly located along the Yangtze River.Highly resilient cities are mainly distributed along Yangtze River,Dongting Lake,Poyang Lake and other water systems,with obvious reliance on water ecosystem and the lowest resilience contribution rate;Highly resilient cities with high infrastructure resilience are developed along Beijing-Kowloon town belt and Shanghai-Kunming town belt,with the highest resilience contribution rate.(3)Urban innovation upgrading,human capital and infrastructure upgrading level are the main obstacle factors for the resilient development of cities in the middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration;economic development output density,urban transportation capacity and education resource guarantee degree are general obstacle factors;urban development,financial development,digital infrastructure and market vitality are the core drivers of urban resilience divergence in the middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration;financial strength,innovation capacity,Financial strength,innovation capability,openness to the outside world and natural factors are general drivers,among which natural factors can be regarded as auxiliary influencing factors;urban development,science and technology innovation and other factors have obvious interaction effects,and the complex interaction of multiple factors contributes to the resilience pattern.Based on the above conclusions,urban resilience optimization should accelerate the pace of new urbanization,establish inter-city coordination and linkage mechanism;strengthen urban innovation capacity,focus on improving human capital;optimize economic structure,improve market activity;strengthen facility linkage and collaboration,improve infrastructure upgrading;build and protect ecological network,improve ecological compensation mechanism;improve functional diversification of resilience system,improve system redundancy,and explore multi system resilience correlation.Figure [12] table [13] reference [83]... |
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