Research On The Development Trend Of Passenger Car Travel On Expressway

With the growth of China’s highway mileage and passenger car ownership,the public travel mode adjustment is obvious,more and more people choose high-speed rail or highway passenger car self-drive travel,resulting in the increasing scale of non-business travel,business passenger traffic has been difficult to effectively reflect the public travel changes.The study of the current situation of highway passenger car travel in China and the prediction of its travel development trend can help to understand the development of highway passenger car travel and residents’ travel demand in China,provide basic data for the study of economic development trend,and better guide the healthy and orderly development of highway passenger transportation industry.This paper analyzes the current situation of highway passenger car travel in China based on highway network toll data and passenger car travel statistical survey data and studies the distribution of highway passenger car traffic and travel mileage distribution.Secondly,based on the principle of index selection,we establish the index system of influencing factors of highway passenger car traffic volume,use gray correlation analysis and the Lasso method to screen and reduce the dimension of influencing factors of highway passenger car traffic volume,construct a prediction model of highway passenger car traffic volume based on multivariate gray prediction theory,and use particle swarm algorithm to find the optimal background value coefficient and establish PSO-OBGM(1,N)prediction model.Finally,the highway passenger car traffic volume and related influencing factors indexes from 2008～2019 were used to verify the prediction model’s accuracy.Based on the PSO-OBGM(1,N)prediction model,the highway passenger car traffic volume in China from 2020 to 2025 without considering the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic(COVID-19)was predicted,and the GM(1,1)model was used to The average highway passenger car trip development trend is predicted,and the development trend of passenger car passenger traffic and turnover is derived,and the epidemic impact coefficient is introduced to correct the passenger car travel data from 2023 to 2025,and the average deviation degree between the predicted value and the actual value under the influence of the epidemic in 2021 and 2022 are analyzed.The results show that: the regional distribution of highway passenger car traffic in China is uneven at the present stage;the travel mileage of passenger cars obeys the distribution characteristic of the exponential decay function;the simulation error and prediction error of PSO-OBGM(1,N)highway passenger car traffic prediction model are 0.619% and 0.59%,respectively,Without considering the impact of the epidemic China’s passenger car travel,passenger volume and turnover in the next few years show a stable upward trend,and the average trip shows a downward trend,The epidemic impact factor was established to correct the passenger car travel projections without considering the impact of the epidemic,resulting in an average annual growth rate of 6.67% in traffic and passenger volume from 2023 to 2025;and an average annual growth rate of 5.19% in turnover.