Land Use Structure Scenario Simulation And Urban Development Direction Research In Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

As the link between human socio-economic activities and natural environment,the change of land structure type will have a significant impact on the ecological environment and human activities.The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle(CCEC)shoulders the task of leading the overall development of the western region.However,due to the rapid development of the social economy in the early stage,the land structure function of the region conflicts significantly with the needs of social and economic development,which not only causes environmental problems(such as water shortage,soil erosion and air pollution),but also caused the decline of cultivated land,unclear urban spatial planning and low utilization of some land.The imbalance between the social economy and the ecological environment has become the contradiction to be solved urgently in the construction of eco-friendly cities in the CCEC.This paper evaluates the ecosystem service value(ESV)of CCEC of 2010 and 2020,and selects the driving factors that have significant correlation with ESV as the driving factors of land use structure simulation.Then,the RF-Markov-CA model is used to test and predict the land structure of CCEC of 2030 on the basis of the land structure and transfer area from 2010 to 2020.Finally,according to the above forecast results,the paper analyzes the spatial influence of driving factors in each area of the CCEC,summarizes the main development forces and constraints in different areas,and puts forward the future construction direction.The results show that the forest,farmland and urban land in the CCEC are more stable.Moreover,the wetland,shrub land and grassland are easier to be converted into other types.The farmland,forest and grassland ecosystems transform to each other constantly,and urban expansion mainly depends on the transfer of farmland to urban land.Based on the different leading factors of social and economic development in the future,the CCEC can be divided into three groups: the southern Sichuan as well as the western urban and metropolitan circles of Chongqing;the central Chengdu-Chongqing urban circle;the Chengdu metropolitan and Wandakai urban circles,which are mainly affected by the change of natural environment.