Research On Forecasting The Cargo Throughput Of Qingdao Port After Transformation And Upgrading

Ports are the gateway for China’s opening up to the outside world and one of the important tasks of cultivating a world-class transportation power for ports.The 14 th Five Year Plan puts forward new requirements for the development of China’s water transportation and ports,pointing out the need to support Shandong in building a world-class marine port and promote the development of container terminals,crude oil terminals,and other projects in the Dongjiakou Port Area of Qingdao;In addition,the "Overall Plan for Qingdao Port(2035)" issued by the Ministry of Transport proposes to create an overall development pattern of "one bay,two wings,and six districts",accelerate the transformation and upgrading of Qingdao Port,which will greatly promote the qualitative leap in cargo throughput of Qingdao Port.Therefore,this article proposes to make a reasonable prediction of the cargo throughput of Qingdao Port in the next five years based on the original cargo throughput without considering transformation and upgrading and the increased cargo throughput after port planning and upgrading.The specific work is as follows:First of all,it analyzes the current situation and future planning of the construction and development of Qingdao Port,and summarizes the influencing factors of the cargo throughput of Qingdao Port,which are respectively the amount of fixed assets investment,the total retail sales of social consumer goods,the total import and export,GDP,the output value of the primary industry,the output value of the secondary industry and the output value of the tertiary industry.By using the system clustering method and Pearson coefficient method,the key influencing factors of cargo throughput in Qingdao Port were selected,and their development situation in the next five years was reasonably predicted,laying the foundation for the prediction of cargo throughput in Qingdao Port that did not consider transformation and upgrading.Secondly,predict the cargo throughput of Qingdao Port without considering transformation and upgrading.Based on the relevant data of Qingdao Port over the years,multiple regression models and BP neural network models are used for prediction;And use Shapley values to combine the weights of the two models,maximizing the advantages of the two models,and analyze the three prediction models.The prediction results indicate that the Shapley value combination model has higher prediction accuracy than a single prediction model.Finally,predict the increased cargo throughput of Qingdao Port after transformation and upgrading.In the context of the transformation and upgrading of Qingdao Port in 2022,the ports around Qingdao Port are selected as indirect hinterland ports.The entropy weight TOPSIS method and Gravity model are used to calculate the attraction of Qingdao Port to surrounding ports after its transformation and upgrading;Using the ARIMA model to predict the future cargo throughput of each port based on the historical cargo throughput of surrounding ports;By combining the weight of the surrounding ports,the cargo throughput that Qingdao Port attracts after transformation and upgrading can be determined.By adding the predicted cargo throughput before transformation and upgrading to the increased cargo throughput after transformation and upgrading,the predicted cargo throughput of Qingdao Port for the next five years after transformation and upgrading can be obtained.According to the cargo throughput of Qingdao Port in 2022 announced by the Ministry of Transport of Qingdao Port,which is 658 million tons,this paper predicts that the cargo throughput before transformation and upgrading will be 641 million tons,and the forecast value taking into account the transformation and upgrading of Qingdao Port will be 647 million tons,with the forecast error reduced from 1.04% to 0.20%.The prediction results show that it is effective to take into account the increased cargo throughput after the transformation and upgrading of Qingdao Port,which provides scientific basis and decision support for the future planning of Qingdao Port.