| Since the concept of low-carbon economy was first proposed in the "Future of Our Energy: Creating a Low-Carbon Economy" published by the British government in 2003,the importance of low-carbon economic development has gradually become the consensus of major countries around the world.The input of agricultural materials such as pesticides,agricultural films,and chemical fertilizers in the agricultural production process is accompanied by the generation of a large amount of greenhouse gases,and agricultural carbon emissions are among the most important aspects of the development of a low-carbon economy.In the course of the development of low-carbon agriculture,the calculation of agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission reduction potential is an important prerequisite for maximizing the carbon emission reduction potential under the background of ensuring output,and is of great significance for accelerating the development of my country’s low-carbon economy..The Yangtze River Economic Belt spans the three major regions of China’s east,central and western regions.Since the "Outline of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Plan" was officially issued in2016,it has established a new development pattern of "one axis,two wings,three poles,and multiple points" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Later,its importance in the process of my country’s economic development has become more prominent,and it has become one of the pillars of my country’s economic development,and the development strategy of "to protect together and not to engage in large-scale development" also guides the future development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.For this reason,relevant research on low-carbon agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Zone will help promote the sustainable development of agriculture in the region and set a model for the sustainable development of agriculture in my country.Based on this,this article takes the Yangtze River Economic Zone as the research object,estimates its agricultural carbon emission reduction potential from 2004 to 2018,and analyzes the influencing factors accordingly,in order to provide a reference for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.Specifically,after understanding the current research status of agricultural carbon emissions,agricultural carbon emission reduction,and agricultural carbon emission reduction potential,this article first builds a scientific and reasonable agriculture based on the research of predecessors and combined with the characteristics of agricultural production in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.Carbon emission measurement system,and from the perspectives of time and space,the total agricultural carbon emission,agricultural carbon emission intensity,and agricultural carbon emission structure in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2004 to 2018 are studied,and the comparison with the national carbon emission level is obtained.The current development level of low-carbon agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Zone;on this basis,MAX-DEA software is used to calculate the shadow price of agricultural carbon emissions through the directional distance function,and the agricultural carbon emission reduction potential index ACACI is constructed;and then with the aid of quantitative analysis software STATA15.0 conducts spatial regression analysis on the agricultural carbon emission reduction potential index,and selects the spatial error model under dual fixed effects through Moran’s I index test,LM test,Robust-LM test,WALD test,and Hausman test.The main influencing factors of emission reduction potential are subjected to regression analysis.Finally,based on the research results,targeted policy recommendations are put forward to provide references for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2004 to 2018,the total agricultural carbon emissions of the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a fluctuating and rising trend,and the carbon emissions of agricultural materials increased the most,with a cumulative increase of 20.93%;the carbon emissions of livestock and poultry farming During this period,it dropped by 14.97%.The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions is decreasing year by year,with a decrease of 67% in the past 15 years.In the structure of agricultural carbon emissions,the carbon emissions structure within the Yangtze River Economic Belt has undergone major changes,mainly because the proportion of livestock and poultry farming has dropped from 34.28% in 2004.It was27.61% in 2018,and the proportion of rice cultivation was the highest,and in 2018 it was42.22%.When compared with the national agricultural carbon emissions,rice carbon emissions accounted for the highest proportion of the national rice carbon emissions,maintaining above 70%.In addition,the proportion of total agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone in the country is also fluctuating and rising,with46.42% in 2018.(2)In terms of space,the total carbon emissions within the Yangtze River Economic Belt vary greatly.The top three provinces and cities in terms of carbon emissions in 2018 are Hunan,Hubei,and Anhui.There are big differences between provinces and cities.The total carbon emissions of central provinces and cities are mostly higher than that of western and eastern provinces and cities;in terms of carbon emission intensity,the carbon emissions of provinces and cities are The gap in emission intensity has gradually narrowed.Among them,Guizhou Province has the largest decline,which is 87.15%.In terms of the structure of agricultural carbon emissions,provinces and cities can be roughly divided into four categories according to the proportion of various types,mainly agricultural materials and rice field cultivation.,Livestock and poultry breeding and compound factors dominate.(3)When using the spatial error model under the dual fixed effects to analyze the influencing factors of the agricultural carbon emission reduction potential index of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,it is found that the regional economic development level,agricultural economic development level,agricultural public investment,agricultural industrial structure,agricultural disaster level All have a positive impact on the potential of agricultural carbon emission reduction,and all have passed the significance test.Among them,the level of regional agricultural economic development has the greatest impact.Based on the research results of this article,the article mainly puts forward the following policy recommendations.First,adapt measures to local conditions and use differentiated strategies to promote the development of regional low-carbon agriculture;Second,increase agricultural support and promote the high-quality development of low-carbon agriculture;Third,improve agricultural infrastructure construction and increase the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization;Fourth,optimize the structure of the agricultural and formulate a low-carbon agricultural development strategy;Fifth,enhance agricultural disaster prevention and resilience,and promote the development of low-carbon agriculture in many ways,with a view to providing corresponding support for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. |
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