Policy Cognition,Risk Perception And The Replenishing Decision Of Pig Farmers

Stabilizing the pig production capacity and ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of the pig industry is related to the healthy operation of the national economy and the quality of life.The replenishing decision of farmers plays a key role in stabilizing pig production and ensuring pig supply.However,the multiple risk characteristics accompanied by breeding activities often frustrate the confidence of farmers,especially the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018,which makes the pig breeding industry suffer an unprecedented blow,and directly leads to the rapid decline of pig breeding scale,pork production and stock volume,which seriously affects the development of pig industry and residents’ life.In order to ensure the supply of live pigs,relevant national departments have issued a number of policy documents from 2019 to 2020.In 2020,the central government "No.1 Document" in 2021 also pointed out that various policies and measures should be strictly implemented to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column and resume production.These policies provide unprecedented dividends and guarantees for farmers.However,the effectiveness of the policy depends on whether its audience takes the corresponding decisions according to the policy expectations.In practice,pig farmers will judge the aspects of the familiarity with policy,favorable policy,policy relevance with their own interests and the accessibility of policy dividends,and have certain sensitivity to the risks such as diseases and market faced in the breeding process.The decision of pig farmers from the perspective of policy cognition and risk perception is of great significance to stabilize pig production capacity and improve industrial development.This paper includes policy cognition,risk perception and farmer column supplement decision into the same analysis framework.Based on the relevant pig industry support policies issued after the outbreak of African swine fever,the cognitive indexes of financial and non-financial support policies are constructed from the perspectives of subsidy,credit support,land use,environmental assessment,disease prevention and control,and transportation;from the three aspects of disease and market.Combined with the actual situation of pig breeding,the risk perception index of pig breeding was constructed from the three aspects of disease,market and policy,and 884 survey data of farmers in Hebei,Shaanxi and Henan were used.The Triple-Hurdle model successively deconstructs the influence mechanism of policy cognition and risk perception on farmers’ willingness to supplement column,column supplement action and degree of column supplement,and on this basis,the mechanism of the interaction term of policy cognition and risk perception on the decision making of column supplement is further analyzed with the interaction effect model.Studies have shown:(1)China’s pig breeding industry is gradually towards large-scale management,but there is still great room for improvement.Affected by various risks,the number of farmers,pork production and pigs between 2011-2020 showed a downward trend,especially after the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018.(2)Farmers have strong willingness to fill the column,but less than 50% of the farmers who have taken the action at that time,while among the farmers who have started the action,61.63% tend to expand the degree of filling.The overall policy awareness of farmers is relatively low.In the fiscal and financial policies,the understanding of various subsidy policies is higher than that of credit support policies.Among the non-fiscal and financial policies,the epidemic prevention and control policies are the most well understood,followed by the environmental assessment policies,land use policies and transportation policies.The overall risk perception of farmers is at a medium level,among which the intensity of market risk perception is higher than that of disease risk perception.(3)Policy cognition and risk perception alone act on farmers’ column supplement decision-making.Firstly,the policy cognition directly promotes the decision of the farmers,including the fiscal and financial policy cognition and the cognition;secondly,the risk perception has direct negative influence,including the disease risk perception and market risk perception affect the three stages.(4)Policy cognition and risk perception have interactive effects on farmers’ column supplement decision-making.On the one hand,policy cognition will reduce the negative effect of risk perception on farmers’ column replenishment decision.Fiscal and financial policy cognition will weaken the negative impact of epidemic risk perception in the stage of replenishment action and replenishment,and weaken the negative effect of market risk perception in the stage of replenishment,while non-fiscal and financial policy cognition will weaken the negative impact of market risk perception in the stage of replenishment.On the other hand,risk perception will reduce the positive effect of policy cognition on farmers’ column replenishment decisions.Higher disease risk perception will weaken the positive impact of financial policy cognition on the column supplement action and column supplement degree,while higher market risk perception will weaken the negative effect of fiscal and financial policy cognition and non-financial policy cognition.(5)For farmers,column replenishment is an important production decision,which will also comprehensively consider individual,family,internal and external environment and other factors.In addition to the policy cognition,risk perception,age,education,whether village cadres,risk preference,family labor quantity,breeding scale,compared with the previous issue of single pig feeding cost changes,the previous issue of pig sales price,piglets source stability,the new outbreak degree,breeding information attention,whether to join the industrial organization will affect farmers column decision at a stage.