Evaluation Of Second-phase Project Of Ecological Protection In Three-River Headwaters Region

In China,the Three-River Headwaters region is one of the most important Ecological function zoning and Animal husbandry production bases.However,due to the stress of global climate change and the disturbance of human activities,in the Three-River Headwaters region,the grassland has been degraded,the ecosystem service function has been reduced,and the living standard of residents has been stagnated.In order to reduce the damage caused by human activities to the grassland ecological environment,the state officially launched the Second Phase of the Three-River Headwaters region Ecological Protection and Construction Project（hereinafter referred to as the second phase Project）in 2014.Function zoning and Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy are the main measures of the Second Phase of the project,starting from the two aspects of grassland and herdsmen,respectively,to realize the protection of grassland.However,in the existing research on the Three-River Headwaters region ecological protection project,the research on number of protect works of the Three-River Headwaters region ecological protection project is only superficial and lacks specific protection measures.The lack of depth of policy evaluation will lead to the failure of research to put forward targeted policy recommendations.Based on the grassland ecological data and the survey data of the herders,this study started from the"ecological productive and livelihood functions"of grassland and reasonably selected indicators to specifically evaluate the implementation effect of grassland functional zoning and grassland ecological subsidy and award policy in the second phase of the project.Firstly,the changes in"ecological productive and livelihood functions"of grassland in the second phase of the project（2014-2020）and the first phase of the project（2005-2013）were compared to obtain the overall implementation effect of the second phase of the project.Then,an econometric model was established to further identify the causal relationship between the changes in the three functions of the grassland and the grassland function zoning and the grassland ecological subsidy policy in the second phase of the project.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:A)After the implementation of the second phase of the project,the ecological and living functions provided by the grassland have been restored,but the production functions have not changed significantly.In terms of ecological function,the annual average water conservation of grassland increased by 23.005 mm·a^-1（growth rate increased by 7%）after the implementation of the second phase of the project,and55.03%of grassland’s water conservation capacity was restored.In terms of living functions,after the implementation of the second phase of the project,the average annual income of the sample pastoral households increased by 3767.2 yuan（growth rate increased by 11.58%）.The main reason for the increase in the total income was the increase in the non-pastoral income of the households.In terms of the production function,before and after the implementation of the second phase of the project,the variation range of the annual grassland theoretical carrying capacity was less than1%.The study found that 45.75%of the 94 grazing households were still overgrazing,this was no significant recovery of the grassland production function.B)The development of grassland functional zoning is conducive to the restoration of ecological and productive functions of grassland in key protected areas.In terms of ecological function,the average annual water conservation of grassland in the key reserve area increased by 23.005 mm·a^-1（growth of 19%）compared with that before the second phase of the project.Based on the causality identification of“Difference in Difference（DID）”,it was found that the annual water conservation of grassland increased by 15.49%with the development of grassland functional zoning.In terms of the production function,after the implementation of the second phase of the project,the annual grassland theoretical carrying capacity in the key protection area increased by 0.07 sheep units per hectare and year（growth of10.04%）.At the same time,the results of causal identification by the DID showed that the annual grassland theoretical carrying capacity increased by 0.0566 sheep units/ha with the development of grassland functional zoning.C)The Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy implemented in the second phase of the project has a significant positive effect on the employment income of non-pastoral households,but the increase of the subsidy amount will have a certain negative effect.In the previous year,the non-grazing employment income of the households increased by 44.4%and 38.3%,respectively,after grazing prohibition and livestock balance management were implemented.However,the coefficient of subsidy income for pasturing households in the previous year in the model was negative,indicating that the increase of the subsidy amount would have a negative impact on the non-pastoral employment income.The possible reason is that the current standard of compensation is generally low,the compensation can’t make up for the operation loss caused by livestock reduction.When the bonus comes to hand,the farmers will choose to invest in husbandry and reduce the input to non-pastoral employment.In total,there are three policy suggestions put forward in this paper:a)Intensify supervision and punishment of ecological violations.b)Refine the zoning standards of the Three-River Headwaters region function zoning and include the ecologically fragile areas of the Three-River Headwaters region into key protection areas.c)Improve the compensation mechanism for grassland ecological protection and strengthen the supervision and punishment of ecological illegal acts in the Three-River Headwaters region.