Research On Risk Spillover Effect Between Feed And Grain Futures And Stock Price Index Of Pig Industry

At present,China is the world’s largest pig breeding and consumer.In the past three years,the per capita pork consumption in China is 22.80 kg/year,20.30 kg/year,18.20 kg/year,accounting for 77.29%,75.46%,and 73.39%,respectively.As can be seen in our meat consumption structure,the pork is the first consumption category of residents at present.Its price fluctuation affects the family living expenses to a great extent,and the important factor that affects the price fluctuation of pork is feed cost.In the cost of pig feed,corn costs accounted for nearly 60%,the proportion of soybean meal 20%,the purpose of this paper is to explore in corn,soybean meal,for example of agricultural product futures market price fluctuations by the cost of pig feed,will affect the pork price changes,in turn,affect the pig breeding company profits,That is to explore the risk spillover effect of agricultural futures market on pig industry stock price index.The main source of meat for Chinese residents is pork.The fluctuation of pork price affects daily life and related industry chain.The price fluctuation of corn and soybean meal,which are the main components of pig feed,may have an impact on pork prices,which in turn will have an impact on listed companies related to the pig industry.In addition,the price of pork will also have an impact on the price level.China’s consumer price index was once called "China’s pork price index".The increase of pork price increases people’s living costs insignificantly.This paper cites "spillover effect","market linkage theory","volatility transmission pathway" and other related theories to provide theoretical support for this paper.The analysis of the relationship between corn and soybean meal futures and the stock price of the pig industry is of great significance in stabilizing the price,ensuring the livelihood of residents and promoting the sustainable development of the industrial chain.Specifically,the research on the risk spillover effect of corn futures,soybean meal futures and pig industry stock price index has both theoretical and practical significance: This research depth of corn and soybean meal futures and risk spillover effect between pig industry companies,to some extent compensate for the agricultural product futures market and the related listed companies risk of overflow relationship between research,elaborated the agricultural products futures research on the influence of the related listed companies,to further the study of existing theory.For the next realistic significance,first of all,it is helpful to the production and management of related enterprises.Secondly for futures and stock investment participants to provide a reference.Thirdly,the decision-making institution has certainreference significance in the scientific regulation and overall planning of the futures market and the stock market directly or indirectly.At the same time,it has important practical significance for the market supervision authorities to strengthen supervision and maintain the stable development of the capital market.This paper adopts the research method of empirical analysis.Firstly,the statistical characteristics of the selected data are analyzed,and the autocorrelation test and unit root test are carried out.Furthermore,VAR model and GARCH family model are established to obtain the following conclusions: and corresponding suggestions are put forward according to the conclusions.