Trend Analysis And Prediction Of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Morbidity And Mortality In China

Objective: By describing the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from1990 to 2019,this study analyzed the changing trend of morbidity and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China and discussed its influencing factors.Based on this,the study predicted the changing trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden in China from 2020 to 2029,providing data support for health authorities to formulate relevant policies and measures.At the same time,it will provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China in the future.Methods: In this study,we extracted data on nasopharyngeal carcinoma morbidity and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019).The trend was quantified using the estimated mean percentage change(EAPC)and its 95% confidence interval(CI).The temporal trend characteristics were analyzed by Joinpoint regression model.An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age,time and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in different sexes and 20-79 years of age in China from 1990 to 2019.A Bayesian Age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China.Results:1.From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China showed an increasing trend(EAPC=2.07),while the standardized mortality showed a decreasing trend(EAPC=-2.69).The incidence and death cases of male were higher than that of female.2.The Joinpoint regression model showed that the standardized incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China increased by 1.804% per year on average from 1990 to 2019.The average annual change in women was lower than that in men,with an average annual increase of 2.36%.From 1990 to 2019,the standardized mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased by 2.545% per year on average,and the average annual change in females was higher than that in males.3.The results of APC model showed that the risk of morbidity and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma increased with the increase of age,with the highest incidence in the 55-59 years of age.The risk of developing and dying from nasopharyngeal cancer decreases as the birth cohort progresses,while the risk of developing nasopharyngeal cancer increases over time.4.The Nordpred age-period-cohort model predicted morbidity and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma,respectively,showing an increasing standardized incidence of about 6.63 per 100,000 in 2025-2029 and a decreasing standardized mortality of about1.27 per 100,000 in 2025-2029.5.The BAPC model,which predicts the incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal cancer respectively,shows an increasing standard incidence of approximately 960 per100,000 cases by 2030,with 196,000 cases,and a decreasing standard mortality of approximately 1.49 per 100,000 cases by 2030,with 37,300 deaths.Conclusion: There is a large gender difference in the incidence and mortality rate of nasopharyngeal cancer.It is predicted that the incidence rate of nasopharyngeal cancer will increase and the mortality rate will decrease in the next ten years,but the overall burden of nasopharyngeal cancer will continue to increase in the future due to China’s large population size and rapid aging population.In addition,the age effect showed an increasing trend in nasopharyngeal carcinoma,and reached a peak in the 55-59 year old group.Therefore,attention should be paid to the prevention and control of nasopharyngeal cancer,especially for the elderly male group,and effective preventive measures should be carried out,such as early screening and health education.