Study On Trends Of The Incidence And Mortality Of Cervical In Chinese Women Based On Data Analysis

In recent years,the rapid growth of economy and progress of technology have a great impact on people’s ideas and behavior,which makes the types of diseases diversified and increasingly threatens people’s health.At the moment,malignant tumor is one of the malady with the highest incidence and fatality rates in the world.And Cervical Cancer is a common female malignant tumor that threatens women’s health while bringing economic burden to the society.In the article,we study the trends of incidence and mortality of female cervical cancer in China,analyze influencing factors and predict the trends.Through the analysis and prediction,they provide the supporting of data and theory for the relevant medical departments to formulate cervical cancer prevention and control measures.First of all,in this article,based on collecting data on the incidence and mortality of female cervical cancer cases in China,we described the changing trends by descriptive statistics analysis,and used the Joinpoint regression model to further analyze the regularity of trends on the base.Secondly,based on the APC model,we used the Intrinsic Estimator to calculate the value of age,period and cohort effects to explore the influences of each factor on the hazard of the incidence and the mortality.Lastly,the ARIMA model,GM model and BP neural network model were constructed to fit the age-adjusted incidence and age-adjusted mortality.And the models fitting effects were tested by applying evaluation indictors of MAE,MSE and MAPE.According to the analysis,it can be concluded that the prediction results of the BP neural network model have high accuracy.Therefore,the BP neural network is used to predict the age-adjusted incidence and age-adjusted mortality of Cervical Cancer in women from 2019 to 2023.The results show that the age-adjusted incidence and the age-adjusted mortality of female cervical cancer cases increase as a whole between 2003 and 2018,which are more affected by age,and less affected by period and cohort factors.The trends are predicted that they will decline from 2019 to 2023.Therefore,it is important that cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccination for women should be strengthened,especially the peak age of 55-59,and targeted prevention and control measures should be formulated.