How Does The Form Features Of Value Effect People’s Mean Prediction From The Continuous Random Events

With the rapid development of information technology,the form of currency is becoming more and more diverse.This change has profoundly affected various game activities that use currency as the main carrier of activities,especially fuzzy decisionmaking games that require individuals to actively perceive game information.At present,research in related fields of psychology mainly focuses on the individual’s perception of the probability distribution of possible events.The various effects of different currency representations in such perceptions have been recognized to a certain extent.Unfortunately,many real-life the game problem has not yet been well explained.The reason is that traditional research on the perception of probability distribution often assumes that "the results of different events are independent of each other",but the results of the game in real game scenarios are often related.It is the existence of this characteristic that requires individuals to make more comprehensive judgments based on the characteristics of the cognitive probability distribution.For fuzzy judgments that take numerical values as the result,the mean value estimation of fluctuation results is such a typical "comprehensive judgment".This research has answered "memory refreshing characteristics in the game process","simple mean perception experiment"(hereinafter referred to as "simple experiment"),and "scenario mean perception"(hereinafter referred to as "situation experiment").How do different forms of value representation affect the average perception and strategy choice of individuals in game activities?".All experiments in the research process were presented to the subjects using computers,and the programs used were written in VBA(Visual Basic for Applications)language and run on a supported platform.The selected subjects were all adult college students in school.The research mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)The estimation of the average value of an individual is not always affected by the number of objectively observed elements,and the subjective perception of the individual is also significantly affected.Contrary to the common sense that "random events with fewer possible outcomes are easier to predict",the number of possible outcomes(hereinafter referred to as "distribution space")does not always significantly affect the prediction of the individual’s mean value,and it needs to be based on the individual’s subjective perception As a prerequisite.This study found that the refreshed memory capacity of individuals in the "N-Back" memory experiment was between 5-6,but the subjects did not show better memory ability in the process of fewer memory elements.Similar findings were obtained from the observation of edge features in simple experiments and memory experiments.Therefore,it is inferred that under the premise that the individual lacks subjective cognition,reducing the distribution space cannot improve the accuracy of individual mean prediction.In contrast,under the premise of individual awareness,the two types of experiments have simultaneously obtained smaller fluctuations in favor of the discovery of individual mean estimation.Summarizing the foregoing two points,this study finds that the accuracy of the individual’s mean prediction is indeed affected by the size of the distribution space of possible event outcomes.When individuals make mean predictions of possible events in a larger distribution space,their accuracy is always reduced,but should be improved.The ability of an individual to predict the mean value in a small distribution space requires the individual to be subjectively aware of the change in the distribution space.(2)The form of value representation affects the average prediction of the individual through the form of cognitive pressure.Appropriate cognitive pressure helps the individual’s average prediction.Different forms of value representation do have an impact on the individual’s mean prediction,but it needs to be mediated by causing the individual’s cognitive pressure to change.In the simple experiment,the elements that change in different units caused the difference in the estimation of the average of the participants,but the different numerical expressions did not.In the scenario experiment,the different conversion forms of the value representation form caused the difference in the estimation of the average of the participants but different values.The characterization symbol does not.This is because in the two experiments,the former caused a change in the individual’s cognitive load while the latter did not,and the subjects with heavier cognitive load in the two experiments showed better ability to predict the mean,so the difference in value representation was inferred the difference in the above can affect the individual’s average perception ability by causing different cognitive loads to the subjects.(3)A more specific game scenario damages the individual’s memory of the game information,but the specific scenario improves the individual’s mean prediction accuracy compared with the pure ability test scenario.The situational experiment found that the individual has a greater deviation in the memory of the information in the game situation,and compared to the simple experiment,the individual’s mean predictive ability in the situational experiment is better.This may be related to the situational experiment that caused the individual to have richer cognitive activities.It may also be due to the situational framework that has changed the level of individual motivation.