The Influence Of Success Probability On The Emotional Prediction Bias Of Negative Events In College Students With High And Low Frustration Toleranc

Affective forecasting bias is a type of separation phenomenon between affective forecasting and affective experience.There are two forms of affective forecasting bias: overestimation refers to that the affective feelings forecasted about future events are higher than the affective feelings actually experienced;underestimation is the opposite.Previous studies have found that the probability of success will affect the individual’s affective forecasting bias,but few research has explored the impact of objective and subjective success probability on affective forecasting bias.In addition,the causes of affective forecasting bias need to be discussed from the perspective of personality.Perseverance refers to the personality trait in the face of setbacks.It affects the affective and behavioral responses of individuals in the face of setbacks and can well reflect the individual differences in negative events.Therefore,this study will explore the influence of objective and subjective success probability on the affective forecasting bias of negative events of undergraduates with high and low perseverance.Two studies consisted of 4 sub-studies were conducted in the current study.Study 1 was aimed to explore the influence of the probability of success on the affective forecasting bias of undergraduates’ negative events.Research 1a was aimed to explore the influence of objective probability of success on the affective forecasting bias of undergraduates’ negative events.69 undergraduates were selected and randomly assigned to high or low objective success probability groups.A mixed experimental design of 2(objective probability of success: high,low)× 2(point in time: pre-test,post-test)was adopted.Create a negative situation through the card task without winning the prize.Before the card task,participants forecasted their affections about not winning.At the end of the card task,all participants received negative feedback and reported their current affections.The results showed that when the objective probability of success was low,there was no significant difference between the negative affections in the pre-test and the negative affections in the post-test.When the objective probability of success was high,the negative affections in the pre-test was significantly lower than that in the post-test.Research 1b was aimed to explore the influence of subjective probability of success on the affective forecasting bias of undergraduates’ negative events.A follow-up study was conducted on the undergraduates who participated in CET4,and finally 52 valid samples were obtained.A mixed experimental design of 2(subjective probability of success: high and low)× 2(point in time: pretest and post-test)was adopted.Before CET4,the participants evaluated their subjective success probability of passing the exam and forecasted their affections of failing the exam.Participants who had failed the test were asked to report their current affections after their scores were released.The results showed that when the subjective probability of success was low,there was no significant difference between the negative affections in the pre-test and the negative affections in the post-test.When the subjective probability of success was high,the negative affections in the pre-test was significantly lower than that in the post-test.Study 2 was aimed to explore the influence of success probability on the affective forecasting bias of negative events of undergraduates with high and low perseverance.Study 2a was aimed to explore the influence of objective success probability on the affective forecasting bias of negative events of undergraduates with high and low perseverance.208 undergraduates were selected and randomly assigned to high or low objective success probability groups.According to the 27% grouping standard,undergraduates with high(n = 56)and low(n =56)perseverance were finally selected.A mixed experimental design of 2(objective probability of success: high,low)× 2(perseverance: high,low)× 2(point in time: pre-test,post-test)was adopted.Create a negative situation through the card task without winning the prize.Before the card task,participants forecasted their affections about not winning.At the end of the card task,all participants received negative feedback and reported their current affections and fill in the Undergraduates Perseverance scale.The results showed that regardless of whether the objective probability of success was low or high,the negative affections of undergraduates with low perseverance was significantly lower in the pre-test than in the post-test.For undergraduates with high perseverance,there is no significant difference between pre-test and post-test negative affections.Study 2b was aimed to explore the influence of subjective success probability on the affective forecasting bias of negative events of undergraduates with high and low perseverance.A followup study was conducted on the undergraduates who participated in CET6.According to the 27%grouping standard,undergraduates with high(n = 55)and low(n = 55)perseverance were finally selected.A mixed experimental design of 2(subjective probability of success: high,low)× 2(perseverance: high,low)× 2(point in time: pre-test,post-test)was adopted.Before CET6,the participants evaluated their subjective success probability of passing the exam and forecasted their affections of failing the exam.Participants who had failed the test were asked to report their current affections and fill in the Undergraduates Perseverance scale after their scores were released.The results showed that when the subjective probability of success was low,there is no significant difference between the negative affections of undergraduates with low perseverance in the pre-test and the post-test.When the subjective probability of success was high,the negative affections of undergraduates with low perseverance was significantly lower in the pre-test than in the post-test.Regardless of whether the subjective probability of success was low or high,there is no significant difference between the negative affections of undergraduates with high perseverance in the pretest and the post-test.Under the research conditions of this paper,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)When objective or subjective probability of success is low,undergraduates can accurately forecast their negative affections in the face of negative events.When objective or subjective probability of success is high,undergraduates underestimate their negative affections in the face of negative events.(2)Regardless of whether the objective/subjective probability of success is low or high,undergraduates with high perseverance can accurately forecast their negative affections in the face of negative events.When the subjective probability of success is low,undergraduates with low perseverance can accurately forecast their negative affections after experiencing negative events,and underestimate their negative affections under other conditions.