A Materialist Historical Perspective On The Rationality And Limitations Of Quantitative Historical Research Method

The historian Barraclough believes that the "quantitative revolution" is undoubtedly a prominent feature of contemporary historiography.In academic practice,Cliometrics has inherited the tradition of the Annales School that promotes the scientization of history,introduced quantitative analysis methods into historical research,and promoted the modernization of history.This paper introduces the concept,development stage and research method of Cliometrics,and also analyzes the specific academic practice of Cliometrics with the attitude of historical materialism,in order to reveal the rationality and limitation of the method of Cliometrics.Fitstly,this paper distinguishes and analyzes the concept of Cliometrics,and then divides its development stages: the initial stage of Cliometrics,the stage when Cliometrics is mainly based on economic and institutional analysis,and the stage of interdisciplinary integration and development of Cliometrics.The basis of the division of stages is the changes in the research field of Cliometrics,the improvement of its research methods and the enrichment of theoretical significance.Then it introduces the methods of Cliometrics,including basic quantitative methods,"counterfactual measurement methods" and "indirect measurement methods",and mathematical model methods and other representative methods.The second and third chapters of this paper combine the academic practice of Cliometrics,and take several representative academic papers as examples to illustrate the rationality and limitation of the research method of Cliometrics.From the perspective of historical materialism,through the text analysis of Fogel,North and others,this paper affirms the promotion of Cliometrics to the modernization of history.For example,the historical facts affirmed by historical materialism are confirmed by quantitative methods,the optimization of historical research methods and the clarification of historical research ideas,etc.It affirms its standardization of historical research steps and its contribution to historical narration,and also affirms the efforts made by quantitative analysis to open up the study of chronology and obtain a coherent understanding.These aspects are the embodiment of its rationality.At the same time,this paper refutes the errors of Cliometrics’ research method in concrete practice.This paper mainly reveals its mistakes in the use of data and the use of mathematical models,such as the defects of data induction,the selection of data from the standpoint of subjective logic,the assumption of mathematical models that ignore non-digital factors in history,or the attempt to replace historical processes with mathematical deductions.At the same time,there are phenomena that deviate from materialist dialectics,such as the lack of interpretation of the laws of qualitative change and quantitative change,the development of historical interpretation by quantitative methods is often divorced from practice and from the corresponding historical background,and quantitative historians are too obsessed with the use of mathematical models.Thus underestimating the cultivation of a sense of history and a view of history,putting too much emphasis on quantitative analysis and ignoring qualitative analysis,and even thinking that quantitative analysis can replace qualitative analysis,and that functional relationships can replace historical relationships,but obviously these practices have failed.The practice of historiography that deviates from the historical materialism always leads to the opposite of the historical truth.Finally,this paper looks forward to the future of Cliometrics,reviews the enlightenment obtained in the development of Cliometrics,and also reveals the good trend of its development,affirms the contribution of Cliometrics in interdisciplinary practice and other aspects,It is emphasized that the future development of Cliometrics needs to adhere to the academic principle of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,and avoid disputes over historical methods.At the same time,this paper criticizes the idea of historical nihilism emerging in the field of Cliometrics.This paper believes that under the guidance of historical materialism,Cliometrics should pay attention to the overall vision of historical research and pursue the truth of history instead of going to random fiction and reconstruction of history.In the era of big data,Cliometrics’ research methods have an indispensable influence on the modernization of history.Faced with the application of new technologies and new methods in the new era,Cliometrics has ushered in a golden period of development.Cliometrics scholars should guard against arrogance and impatience,give full play to the advantages of their own research methods,continue to promote the progress of historical theories with Chinese’ characteristics on the basis of adherence to historical materialism,tell the story of China’s economic history well,and grasp the key to the development of history,and embrace the future of historiography development.