| In recent years,the Party and the state have proposed to "implement the healthy China strategy".With the encouragement of national policies,commercial health insurance has developed rapidly,and the original premium income has rapidly increased from 67.75 billion yuan in 2010 to 844.7 billion yuan in 2021.At the same time,China published the data of the seventh national census in May 2021,which shows that the degree of population aging in China is gradually deepening.On the one hand,the increasingly serious problem of aging has a great impact on China’s economic development,increasing the financial expenditure burden of the government and the support burden of the working population.On the other hand,the elderly population is more likely to get sick,and it is more necessary to alleviate the economic burden and health risks caused by medical consumption expenditure and other reasons through external protection,so the demand for insurance is higher.However,although the coverage of social basic medical insurance in China is very high at present,its protection is low and its coverage is narrow,which can not meet people’s needs to reduce economic burden and prevent health risks.In this case,the supplementary role of commercial health insurance is becoming more and more prominent.China’s commercial health insurance has a broad development space and a good development trend.It is of great significance to analyze whether and how the aging population affects the demand for commercial health insurance in China.Based on the demand theory of commercial health insurance,Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory,information asymmetry theory and life cycle consumption theory,this paper finds that the aging population will reduce the demand of commercial health insurance by reducing the total household income and increasing medical consumption expenditure,and uses CHFS data in 2019 to establish Probit model and Tobit model for empirical analysis,and studies the influence of population aging on the demand of commercial health insurance.By replacing data,variables and sub-sample regression,the robustness test is carried out,and the influence mechanism test is carried out with total household income and medical care consumption expenditure as intermediary variables.The heterogeneity analysis of provincial and commercial health insurance classification is also carried out,and finally conclusions are drawn and policy suggestions are put forward.The results show that the aging population has a significant inhibitory effect on the demand for commercial health insurance;The aging population will reduce the demand for commercial health insurance by reducing the total household income and increasing the medical and health care consumption expenditure,and crowding out the disposable income of households for purchasing commercial health insurance;The aging degree of macro population will promote the commercial health insurance demand of micro families to some extent;The aging population has a significant impact on the demand for commercial medical insurance and critical illness insurance,and the elderly are more inclined to buy critical illness insurance.Policy recommendations: First,insurance companies should innovate products to meet the insurance needs of the elderly,relax the purchase restrictions of the elderly,improve their own management level,increase the publicity of health insurance products,and enhance residents’ insurance awareness.Second,the government should issue policy documents to promote the professional development of commercial health insurance,increase financial support,strengthen the supervision of the insurance market,promote the high-quality development of commercial health insurance,publicize health knowledge,raise residents’ awareness of health risks,and improve their enthusiasm for purchasing commercial health insurance.Third,families should improve their understanding of the medical security system and plan insurance allocation in advance. |
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