| The cause of the disabled is an important component of the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics.The 20 th National Congress of the CPC clearly calls for improving the social security system and the care and service system for the disabled,and promoting the all-round development of the cause of the disabled.It is necessary to accurately understand the current situation of income security for the disabled to improve their security and development ability scientifically.At present,in the survey of family income status of disabled persons conducted by China Disabled Persons’ Federation,the sampling method of family income of disabled persons is a combination of cluster and random,which is specific to the small number of samples in each region and cannot fully reflect the actual situation of local family income of disabled persons,so reasonable estimation is needed.Based on the collation and analysis of relevant literature and theoretical methods at home and abroad,this paper studies the per capita disposable income of households with disabled persons by applying the method of small domain estimation based on the data of the household income survey of disabled persons in Jiangsu Province and the basic status survey of the certified disabled persons in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to2021.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of the family income survey for the disabled,and explains the existing problems of the family income statistics for the disabled from the sample status and income status.Secondly,the 2021 household income survey data of disabled persons and 2021 basic status survey data of disabled persons in Jiangsu Province were used to verify the feasibility of the small-field estimation method.By matching the data of family income survey and basic status survey,variables were selected from the individual characteristics,family characteristics and regional economic characteristics of the disabled,and quantile regression method was used to reflect the influence of each variable on the family income of the disabled under different quantiles.By comparing the results of several small domain estimation,the data was divided into training set and test set by using machine learning methods,multiple linear regression and Fay-Herriot model were selected for model fitting prediction,and relative errors were used to compare the estimation accuracy.Finally,the Fay-Herriot model is used to estimate the small area income respectively,and the family income level of disabled people in Jiangsu Province and prefecture-level cities is analyzed.The results show that:(1)The estimation of per capita disposable income of families with disabled persons can reflect the average level of family income of disabled persons by using the method of small domain estimation and auxiliary information.In the small field estimation method,the Fay-Herriot model with the random effect of the field is more ideal and the relative error is smaller.(2)The household registration nature,employment status and per capita disposable income of the disabled have a significant impact on the per capita disposable income of the disabled family.The quantile regression results show that the household registration nature and employment status of the disabled family with higher income have a greater impact on the per capita disposable income of the disabled family with low income.(3)From 2016 to 2021,the family income level of disabled persons in Jiangsu Province increased year by year,and compared with that of residents in the whole province,the increase rate was larger.In2021,the per capita household income of disabled people in Nanjing was the highest,followed by Suzhou and Wuxi.According to the above research,we should improve the working system of family income survey for the disabled,save cost and improve data quality with the help of reasonable estimation method.We will continue to raise the income level of families with disabilities and narrow the income gap between them. |
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