A Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In Tianjin

At present,the aging of population has become a difficult problem perplexing countries all over the world,which will have a great impact on economic growth.This paper mainly studies the impact of population aging on economic growth in Tianjin.It is found that the current population aging level in Tianjin is higher than the national average level,and the process of population aging is significantly accelerated.Through the research on the problem of population aging in Tianjin and the analysis of the impact of population aging on economic growth,it will help to attract people’s attention to the problem of population aging.Firstly,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the current situation of population aging in Tianjin.Based on the data of the three censuses of Tianjin in2000,2010 and 2020 and the Tianjin statistical yearbook from 1995 to 2021,it is found that the population aging in Tianjin presents the characteristics of large elderly population base,large regional differences and large proportion of female elderly population.Then,this paper focuses on the impact of population aging on economic growth in Tianjin,including:(1)based on Solow’s economic growth theory,this paper constructs a theoretical model by adding population aging factors and human capital factors into Cobb Douglas production function,and finds that population aging will have an adverse impact on economic growth;(2)Select two indicators closely related to the working age population proportion and population burden coefficient and population aging,and use ridge regression to build an empirical model to solve the multicollinearity impact estimated by the ordinary least squares method.It is found that the factors of population aging and the sum of population natural growth rate and capital depreciation rate are not conducive to economic growth,technical level Savings and human capital will promote economic growth;(3)Different capital depreciation rates are selected to test the sensitivity of the model.It is found that the higher the capital depreciation rate is,the more obvious the adverse impact of aging factors on economic growth is.Finally,according to the research and analysis results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,including making full use of the aged population resources,increasing scientific and technological innovation,mining high-level talents and adjusting the reasonable birth policy,so as to alleviate the impact of the aging population on the economic growth of Tianjin.