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Economic Growth And Social Security Expenditure:Based On An Empirical Study Of Chinese Time Series Data

Posted on:2016-03-11Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:K Y LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2296330461969062Subject:Public Management
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Owing to the baby boom in early stage of new China and the one-child policy promulgated in the 1970s, China has become an aging society whose population structure takes the shape of an olive in 2007, then the social security affairs in China have received much attention in the past few years. In recent years, China’s social security system has been developed and improved constantly, as an important part of government spending, China’s social security expenditure has an impact on economic growth, in order to analyze the relationship between them, more and more scholars begin to study in this domain.This paper summarizes the current situation of China’s social security system and financial expenditure coverage, compares the social security system of both at home and abroad, and provides the basis for improving China’s social security system. At the same time, we also take contrastive analysis on the social security expenditure level of China and other countries, what is surprising is that China’s social security spending remains to have a considerable room for growth. On empirical side, from the aspect of input and output, we establish an empirical model on the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function, and choose economic growth, China’s social security expenditure, capital stock, labor input as the core explanatory variables, select opening degree, consumption as control variables, use time series data from 1989 to 2012 in China to do stationary test, take cointegration analysis and set up VAR model.By studying the effects of all variables on economic growth, we draw conclusions as follow:(1) There is a significantly negative correlation between China’s social security expenditure and economic growth, both capital stock and labor input have a positive impact on economic growth. Since the most of China’s social security expenditure is from government spending, social security expenditure will lead to the reduction of labor supply and capital formation, then it will have a negative impact on economic growth, it is also not conducive to long-term sustainable growth of national income.(2) The growth and volatility of China’s social security expenditure isn’t the Granger cause of economic growth. However, the latter is the Granger cause of the former.
Keywords/Search Tags:Social security expenditure, Economic growth, Cobb-Douglas production function, Cointegration Analysis, VAR model
PDF Full Text Request
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