Research On The Transmission Effect Of Sudden Public Events In The Industry Based On Network Mode

Public emergencies are unpredictable,and there is a strong linkage between industries.Once an industry is impacted,this impact will continue to spread in the macroeconomic network,leading to systemic risks.The impact of public emergencies on macroeconomic networks can be divided into direct and indirect impacts.Therefore,the research content of this article mainly focuses on two issues: first,how to effectively curb the transmission of risks among industries when faced with the direct impact of public emergencies;Secondly,how can relevant industries effectively avoid the indirect impact of emergencies.The specific research content is as follows:Aiming at the first problem,this paper takes the COVID-19 in Shanghai as an example to study the transmission path of the impact of public emergencies on the industry in the macroeconomic network.Firstly,based on the regional input-output table,the strongest path matrix is obtained to reshape inter industry relationships,thereby establishing a macroeconomic network model and characterizing its economic structure.Secondly,from the perspective of shock propagation through both supply and demand sides,the dynamic evolution process of shock diffusion is simulated.The research results show that the industries represented by "other manufactured products" in Shanghai have a significant direct impact on the upstream and downstream industries inside and outside Shanghai;Shanghai’s industries such as "oil and gas exploration products" and "culture,sports,and entertainment" are in a core strategic position in resource transmission.Giving more attention to the above industries is of great significance both in suppressing the spread of shocks and in subsequent economic recovery.In addition,the simulation results of shock diffusion show that the infectious process of shock has mutation,and preventing shock diffusion from reaching the mutation point is the key to avoiding greater risks;The contagion of supply shocks and demand shocks is very sensitive to intermediate substitution and the bankruptcy threshold of enterprises.Aiming at the second issue,this paper uses complex network theory to study the indirect impact of public emergencies on the industry,taking the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar as an example.Transform the time series data of the RMB/USD exchange rate into a visibility graph network to study the diffusion characteristics of shocks from a time dimension.The research finds that:(1)Most nodes have a small impact on exchange rate fluctuations,while a few nodes have a large impact on exchange rate fluctuations.Such a few nodes are considered as hubs.The impact of public emergencies will extend from hubs to the entire network.(2)When there are major emergencies,the average shortest path length of the entire network becomes smaller,and the relationship between nodes becomes closer.Current trends affect future trends and are negatively correlated with future trends.