Modeling Farming Decisions Of Smallholder Farmers In Coastal Zone Under Multiple Stressors

Smallholder farmers are the basic condition of our country,and smallholder farmers are the largest agricultural micromanagement entity.At the same time,smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable,and their farming activities are often under multiple stressors,including global climate change,high agricultural prices,poor access to financial and institutional services,and poor infrastructure and agricultural equipment.These stressors pose a long-term threat to their farming activities,posing huge challenges to smallholder farmer livelihoods and national food security.In particular,the large number of smallholder farmers in coastal zones,despite being an important force for economic stability and food production,are easily overlooked and forgotten due to their special location and receive little attention.So what farming decisions will coastal smallholder farmers make in the face of multiple stressors? And whether their farming behavior is sustainable in the long run? There are no answers to these questions.Based on this,this paper,through the cultivation investigation of smallholder farmers in the coastal zone of Guangxi Mountain Pass,identifies the multiple stressors faced by smallholder farmers in the coastal zone,and builds an Agent-based model;ABM)to explore the long-term and dynamic farming decisions of smallholder farmers in coastal zones under multiple stressors,and through the optimization analysis of policy measures to improve the farming willingness of smallholder farmers in coastal zones,in order to put forward policy suggestions for alleviating the farming pressure of smallholder farmers in coastal zones and reducing the abandonment of arable land in coastal zones.The results are as follows:(1)Smallholder farmers in coastal zones have a strong sense of natural environmental pressure,but are not sensitive to social and economic pressure.Among them,climate drought(72.93%)is the most critical stressor,which seriously affects the farming decisions of smallholder farmers.Drought,water shortage and other crises have resulted in several years of crop loss or even zero,threatening the agricultural production and livelihood welfare of local smallholder farmers,who are facing multiple stressors that need to be addressed urgently.(2)The abandonment trend and non-agricultural process of smallholder farmers in coastal zone were significant under multiple pressure sources,and the abandonment of arable land was intensified.At the same time,due to weak transfer willingness and underdeveloped land market,land transfer plays a limited role in reducing the abandonment of coastal farmland.Therefore,in order to consolidate the foundation of food security,strengthen the cultivation of land transfer market and improve the farming willingness of smallholder farmers in coastal zones,we should not relax.(3)Reducing the natural environmental pressure of smallholder farmers in coastal zones is an effective way to improve their farming willingness and reduce the abandonment of arable land in coastal zones,while the measures to reduce the socio-economic pressure of smallholder farmers are less effective.In addition,reducing the natural environment and social and economic pressure of smallholder farmers in coastal zones is not always better.Government departments should be alert to the diminishing marginal benefits of decompression measures and timely change their strategies when the effect of decompression measures slows down.