Study On Land Use Livelihood Strategy Simulation And Policy Regulation Of Coastal Farmers Based On MAS Model

In the human ground system,the human livelihood strategy will directly affect the geographical environment,driving the evolution of the human-land system.People also pay more attention to the relationship between the livelihood activities of farmers and land changes.The coastal zone is the zone with the most obvious regional advantages,the most abundant resources,and the most active human activities.It is also a zone with ecological fragility and more disasters.With the acceleration of population pressure and urbanization,the coastal zone faces the regional ecological environment.Many problems,such as destruction,biodiversity loss,and degradation of fishery resources,threaten the sustainable development of coastal zones.Analyze the interaction mechanism between the livelihood strategies of land-based farmers and land use change,and predict future land use changes under different policy scenarios,thereby making rational policy adjustments,land change,ecological security,livelihood sustainability and rural sustainable development.All aspects have important significance.This paper mainly starts from the relationship between farmers' land use livelihood strategies and land use change,selects Shankou Town of Beihai City with obvious coastal features as the study area,and takes the farmers of three typical villages in Shankou Town as the research object,and surveys the data of farmers.Statistical yearbook data and land use status data are used as data sources.Using Stata and Excel statistical software to conduct preliminary analysis,master the livelihood status of typical villages in the study area and land use in the past decade.On this basis,the social,economic and institutional factors affecting the land use behavior of farmers are selected.The Amos path analysis method is used to quantitatively reveal the decision-making path of farmers'land use behavior,improve the decision-making mechanism of farmers'land use behavior,and study the farmers'livelihood strategies and land.Take advantage of the changing interaction process.Finally,using the NetLogo simulation platform,a multi-agent model based on micro-individuals of farmers is established to reveal the decision-making mechanism of farmers' land use livelihood and simulate the land use behavior of decision makers.Through the model inversion of the validity of the land use change test and verification model of typical township villages in the study area from 2007 to 2017,simulate the land use change in the next decade,predict the change trend of farmland use,and analyze the impact of farmers' decision-making on land use change..Through the above analysis,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The analysis of the land use decision path of the three villages in the study area is remarkable and typical.Farmers' per capita arable land area,agricultural employment population,education level,and farmer risk type factors will have direct and indirect impacts on farmers' livelihood decision-making.The cumulative total effect of impact is from large to small:farmer risk type>Education level>Cultivated land area per capita>Agricultural population.(2)Farmers of different risk types have different degrees of impact on land use change.Risk-appropriate farmers will cause greater land use change,risk-averse farmers will have the least impact on land use change,and risk-neutral farmers will have the least degree of land use change.(3)Under different policy backgrounds,the land use change of farmers will also change.The policy of developing economics will lead to a greater degree of land use change,and the implementation of ecological civilization-oriented policy will be pursued while pursuing economic development.Let the degree of land use change become more moderate.In the context of the two policies,the area of forest land,water land and construction land is on the rise,but in the economic-oriented scenario 2,the rate of change is faster than the ecologically oriented scenario;the area of cultivated land,Both the grassland area and the unused land area showed a decreasing trend,and the rate of reduction in the economically oriented scene was relatively fast.