The Trend Of Cyber Covert Operations And Its Impact On International Conflict

.In recent years,the increase in cyber-attacks has attracted people’s attention to cyber-security.However,academic researches has focused more on the impact of cyber-attack on futural war forms,with less discussion on their impact on the outcomes of interactions between nation-states,particularly studying cyber attacks under the theoretical framework of covert action and their impact on international conflicts.This article focuses on the trends of covert actions in cyberspace and the dynamics between countries spawned by cyber covert actions.It is believed that covert actions in cyberspace manifest three trends: "increasing dependence on national level technology","increasing ability to plausible deny its liability",and "strengthening incentive mechanisms for actions".Based on these three trends,strength,willingness and loss are identified as three variables that affect the outcome of nation interactions,and rested on this,it is inferred that there may be eight scenarios of interactions between nation-states revolving around cyber covert actions,including(1)a significant gap of strength between the two countries,but the actions did not cause serious losses,and the target country does not have the willingness to take retaliation,which ends up with the target side giving up retaliation;(2)The gap of strength between the two countries is relatively small,and the losses caused by the behavior to the target country are relatively small.If the target country has no intention of retaliation,they will give up retaliation;(3)The strength gap is relatively small,and the behavior causes significant losses to the target country.However,due to the lack of willingness to retaliate,the target country is likely to choose a symbolic response;(4)When there is a significant gap of strength and the target country suffers significant damage,the target country not only lacks the ability to retaliate,but also lacks the willingness to retaliate,ultimately choosing to submit to the coercion of the initiating country;(5)and(6)When the strength gap is small and the target country has a willingness to retaliate,the target country will adopt a policy of equal retaliation,and the intensity of retaliation is positively correlated with the degree of loss,that is,the greater the loss,the stronger the retaliation,and vice versa;(7)When the strengthgap is large and the losses caused by actions are small,but the target country still has a strong willingness to retaliate,the target country chooses symbolic retaliatory measures to respond;(8)There is a significant gap in strength between the two sides,and when the target country not only has a strong willingness to retaliate,but also has suffered serious losses,the target country may adopt asymmetric retaliation.These interaction scenarios indicate that covert actions in cyberspace and related interactions introduce more risks and uncertainties into international relations,which increases the frequency of conflicts between countries,and consequentially,impacts the stability and security of the international system.As more relevant cases occur or details are declassifid,the research conclusions of this article are expected to pave the way for rigorous empirical research in the future.