Study On The Impact Of Rising Labor Cost On Agricultural Planting Structure In Hunan Province

In 2021,the "No.1 document" of the central government clearly proposed to promote the agricultural supply side reform,focusing on adjusting and optimizing the planting structure.Among the many influencing factors of planting structure,labor force is one of the important production factors in agricultural management.Since 2004,China’s labor cost has started to rise rapidly.The labor cost of agricultural production has increased nearly 4.27 times in the past 10 years.The rising labor cost is an important factor affecting the agricultural planting structure.During the"fourteenth five year plan" period,the central government proposed to scientifically deploy the planting structure.As a traditional large agricultural province and a large grain and oil province,Hunan Province explored the impact mechanism of rising labor costs on the agricultural planting structure and made empirical analysis,which is not only conducive to optimizing the agricultural planting structure and increasing farmers’ income,but also conducive to promoting the structural reform of agricultural supply side and the high-quality development of agricultural production.Based on the theory of induced technological innovation and the theory of farmers’ behavior,this study adopts a two-way fixed effect model,uses the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018,selects the planting proportion of main crops in Hunan Province to represent the planting structure,and introduces the total power of agricultural machinery and product output value as intermediary variables to analyze the substantive impact of rising labor costs on the agricultural planting structure in Hunan Province.The results show that:first,the rise of labor costs has a significant impact on the agricultural planting structure in Hunan Province.Every 1%increase in employment costs will increase the planting proportion of rice and rape by 0.364%and 0.0578%,and the planting proportion of cotton by 0.0071%.Second,for every 1%increase in the intermediary variable,the total mechanical power has a significant positive impact on rice and rape,and the planting proportion of rice and rape has increased by 0.136%and 0.079%,with no significant impact on cotton.The output value was significantly positive for the three crops,and the planting proportion of rice,rape and cotton increased by 0.498%,0.08314%and 0.00811%.In the current development of planting structure in Hunan Province,rape has more advantages than rice,and cotton has the trend of being replaced gradually.How to realize "giving priority to the development of grain production and stabilizing the supply of cotton"in accordance with the requirements of the national "fourteenth five year plan" for the adjustment of agricultural planting structure in major producing provinces,especially in Hunan Province,has become one of the urgent problems to be solved in improving the quality and growth rate of agricultural development in Hunan Province under the current background.On this basis,the paper puts forward the policy reference for Hunan Province to cope with the rising labor cost and reasonably optimize the agricultural planting structure.For example,strengthen the education and skill training for farmers,and replace the quantity with the quality of labor force;Increase support for agricultural production;Optimize the agricultural planting structure in Hunan Province,focus on the development of the "oil grain" and "cotton oil" mixed planting mode under the condition of reasonable consideration of crop planting rules and environmental requirements,so as to "maintain pressure",give priority to the development of food production,and stabilize cotton production and supply.