Aging Of Population,Technology Progress,and Low-Carbon Development

At the 75 th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020,Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutral" in China.On February 2,2021,the Guiding Opinions of The State Council on Accelerating the Establishment and Improvement of the Green,Low-carbon and Circular Development Economic System were released.China will promote high-quality development and high-level protection in a coordinated manner,establish and improve an economic system for green,low-carbon and circular development,ensure the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral,and push China’s green development to a new level,the guideline said.Thus,it is of great significance for China to achieve low-carbon development.On the other hand,as early as the beginning of the 21 st century,China has begun to enter the aging society,and the degree of deepening.China’s population is aging further,according to the results of the seventh national census released on May 11,2021.The central region is an important region supporting the medium-high growth of China’s economy and occupies a decisive strategic position in the national regional development pattern.In April 2021,Guidelines on High-quality Development in central China were released.The guideline once again emphasizes the low-carbon development goal of adhering to green development and creating a beautiful central China where man and nature coexist in harmony.And improve the policy measures to promote high-quality development in the central region of high-quality development.The 14 th Five-year Plan has clearly emphasized that high-quality development has become the theme of China’s economic development.Science and technology,as the primary productive force,plays a crucial role in promoting green development.Therefore,Six central provinces were selected as the research objects,this study attempts to explore the relationship among population aging,technological progress and carbon emissions,in order to make contributions to the higher quality green development of the region.This thesis firstly reviews the literature on the relationship between population aging,technological progress and carbon emissions.Then it explains how population aging plays a role in carbon emissions and how technological progress plays a regulating role,Put forward the theoretical hypothesis of this thesis.Then based on panel data from 80prefecture-level cities in six central provinces,Spatial econometric model was used to quantitatively analyze the impact of population aging and control variables on carbon emissions and the moderating effect of technological factors.The spatial distribution characteristics of aging and carbon emissions were analyzed.Then,the robustness of the method of proxy variables was tested.The results show that :(1)the impact of population aging on carbon emissions presents a significant inverted "U" shape.When the elderly population increases,the consumption demand for related medical and health care industries increases,and such consumption increases,consuming more energy and indirectly increasing carbon emissions.In addition,at this time,population aging is in the early stage,the demographic dividend does not disappear,the working-age population does not significantly reduce,and the working-age population,which takes the lead in consumption and production,generates higher carbon emissions through production and consumption activities.However,as the aging population reaches a certain extent,labor supply will decrease and consumption will also decrease sharply,which will restrain economic growth and bring about a decline in carbon emission level.(2)the influence of technology progress on carbon emissions coefficient is negative,the model can be obtained by SDM bidirectional effect,technical progress factor can effectively inhibit the aging population increase of carbon increment,inhibit the ill effects of population aging on low carbon development(3)from the point of view of space,80 central cities as per capita carbon emissions is positively correlated in space,That is,the carbon dioxide emissions in the central region of the spatial cluster trend.According to the research findings,the following policy suggestions are put forward:First,strengthen incentives for low-carbon technological innovation.Second,optimize the industrial structure and vigorously develop the tertiary industry as the main aging industry.Third,we will improve the structure of government spending.Fourth,encourage birth to fundamentally slow down the rapid growth of the aging rate.