| Population aging is a compound process accompanied by economic development and population age structure transformation.Due to different factors such as economic development level 、 fertility concept and policy,there are significant differences in the process of population aging among countries.Western developed countries have experienced the aging of population for a long time,with good economic foundation and perfect social security system,while China’s aging process is more rapid than that of Western developed countries,which will bring more profound impact on China’s economic and social development.Since the 1970s,thanks to family planning and social and economic development,the dependency ratio of total population in China has decreased,while the proportion of working-age population has continued to increase,forming a demographic age structure that is very conducive to economic growth,and gradually transforming into the "demographic dividend" that has fueled the rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up.However,as China enters the aging society in advance,the factor endowment dominated by labor input is gradually shifting,and the way of economic growth that relies too much on the development of labor factors is unsustainable.If the economic transformation cannot be smoothly realized,the economic growth rate will decline to a large extent.Since the 19th session of national congress of the communist party of China,China’s economy has entered a stage of high-quality development,which calls for a shift from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth.In the current critical period when population aging is accelerating and economic development is turning to high-quality development,it is of great practical significance to study the effect of China’s rapid population aging on high-quality economic development.It is particularly important to adjust population and economic policies to address the challenges of population aging and achieve high-quality economic development.Based on the review of domestic and foreign literature,this paper comprehensively analyzes the mechanism of China’s rapid population aging affecting high-quality economic development by using demographic transition theory,life cycle theory and economic growth theory,and then takes provincial administrative units as the research object,and quantitative analysis methods such as Tobit model,mediating effect analysis,threshold effect regression model and so on as research tools,We examined the impact,mechanism,and threshold effect of China’s rapid population aging on high-quality economic development.The research has drawn the following basic conclusions:(1)The overall aging population in China is in an accelerating state of development,showing spatial heterogeneity.The age structure of the population of our country has transformed from full "positive pyramid" in 1953 to a "spindle shaped pyramid" in 2020.Within a few decades,China has completed the transformation of the population of Western developed countries from adult to elderly in the past century,the transition to population ageing has proceeding rapidly.However,the degree of population aging between regions is gradually spreading from southeast to northwest and concentrating in the central region,and the speed of population aging is also different between regions.The reasons for this phenomenon have been directly related to the demographic transition and the level of economic development,and the difference in regional economic development level and largescale age-selective and targeted population migration have been the main reasons for the regional disparity in population aging.The regional differences of population aging may further widen the differences in regional economic development,which should also be taken into account when analyzing the relationship between population aging and economic development.(2)The impact of China’s rapid population aging on high-quality economic development exists in the coexistence of "acceleration(positive effect)" and "deceleration(negative effect)" effects,that is,the rapid population aging has a non-linear impact on high-quality economic development.Further analysis based on the perspective of supply and demand reveals that China’s rapid population aging has different effects on high-quality economic development on the demand side and supply side.From the demand side perspective,the greater the demand for social security expenditures from China’s rapid population aging,the greater its positive effect on high-quality economic development.Through further analysis,it is found that rapid population aging can also affect high-quality economic development through the change of supply side factors.Rapid population aging inhibits the accumulation of human capital,which has be the key factor to promote high-quality economic development.Rapid population aging inhibits the accumulation of human capital,and then inhibits high-quality economic development.At the same time,rapid population aging has a promoting effect on technological progress,however,with the further acceleration of the process of population aging,this promoting effect gradually has weakened and gradually transformed into an obstacle to technological progress,As a result,rapid population aging has a nonlinear influence trend of rising first and then declining on the high-quality economic development.Finally,the study also found that rapid population aging does not have an absolute negative impact on labor participation rate.When the speed of population aging is moderate,it will promote the increase of the labor participation rate.However,if the speed of population aging is too fast,the negative effect of population aging on labor participation rate will be obvious,weakening or offsetting the positive effect of labor participation rate on high-quality economic development.Overall,the impact of rapid population aging on high-quality economic development has complex and uncertain,and the inspiration for us is that the proposed measures for population aging in China should vary from time to time.(3)The impact of China’s rapid population aging on high-quality economic development has spatial differences.In regions with higher levels of population aging,rapid population aging has a more significant effect on high-quality economic development.That is,in the eastern and central regions with higher levels of population aging,rapid population aging has a "first promoting and then suppressing" effect on high-quality economic development in that region.But for the western region,this nonlinear effect is not significant,the reason may be that the population aging degree in the western region has be lighter than that in the eastern and central regions,and the accelerated population aging has no significant effect on its highquality economic development in the short term.(4)The speed of population aging in China also has regional heterogeneity.Through further dividing the population aging speed of each province into progressive population aging and rapid population aging,the empirical analysis shows that different degrees of rapid population aging also have varying degrees of impact on high-quality economic development.The rapid population aging group has had less impact on economic quality than the progressive population aging group.(5)The rapid aging of China’s population has a differential impact on five aspects of high-quality economic development through four mechanisms: social security expenditure,human capital,technological progress,and labor participation rate,which have both promoting and inhibiting effects.Among them,social security expenditure,human capital,and technological progress all have inhibitory effects on the distribution of economic achievements,emphasizing that we should pay attention to efficiency while also taking into account fairness;Social security expenditure,human capital,technological progress,and labor participation rate all have significant promoting effects on welfare changes and social status related indicators of economic growth,and should continue to exert such positive effects;In addition to the inhibitory effect of labor participation rate on economic development efficiency and stability,social security expenditure,human capital,and technological progress all have a significant promoting effect on it;Social security expenditure and human capital have a promoting effect on natural resources and the environment,while labor participation rate has a restraining effect on natural resources and the environment,emphasizing that the economy should shift from scale efficiency to innovation efficiency.(6)The impact level of China’s rapid population aging on high-quality economic development is not constant,but is accompanied by corresponding changes in the four mechanism variables of social security expenditure,human capital,technological progress,and labor participation rate.Improving the level of mechanism variables that are conducive to promoting high-quality economic development will help alleviate the negative effects of rapid population aging on high-quality economic development.The above-mentioned analysis results indicate that China’s rapid population aging has not absolutely suppressed high-quality economic development,only when the population aging speed is too fast can it have a negative impact on high-quality economic development.Therefore,we should treat some negative views which exaggerate the negative impact of population aging,and objectively face the reality of population aging.Rapid aging of the population has adverse effects on economic development,measures should be taken to avoid and resolve the adverse effects,population aging policies should be adopted to adapt to economic development and turn challenges into opportunities,which will be conducive to the realization of high-quality economic development in China. |
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