| The population issue has always been a fundamental,overall,and strategic issue facing human society.China is at the critical juncture of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the unprecedented great changes in the world in a century.We must fully understand the seriousness and urgency of the population situation and its great impact on economic development.China’s population situation has also undergone unprecedented changes in recent years.In 2021,the total fertility rate has dropped to a record low of 1.1,resulting in a net population growth of only 480000.The total population will soon reach its peak and enter a negative growth era.The change of China’s population structure has reached a very urgent turning point.We need to resolutely adopt more active population policies to promote long-term balanced population development and provide impetus for high-quality development.At the same time,we also need research on population and economic development to provide solid theoretical support and practical guidance for the formulation of China’s population policy.By analyzing the data in the United Nations World Population outlook 2019 report and the population data of high-income countries classified by the world bank,this paper finds that the total fertility rate of the world is declining,the population growth rate is slowing down,and the aging trend is obvious.The average life expectancy of most countries in the world is increasing.It is predicted that by 2050,the number of people over 65 years old will be more than twice that of children under five years old.The majority of countries in the world have begun to cope with the challenge of population aging.Since 2005,high-income countries have been facing a very serious challenge of population aging.The reason is that with the gradual improvement of medical care in high-income countries,the average life expectancy of the population has steadily increased from 64.9 years in 1950 to 80.9 years in 2020.The total fertility rate,that is,the average number of children per woman of childbearing age,has also generally decreased to about 1.6.However,since most high-income countries have adopted active fertility support policies,it is expected that the total fertility rate will remain around 1.7 for a long time in the future.Through the empirical analysis of China’s population structure and economic data since 2005,it is found that the proportion of the working age population,the growth rate of the labor force,the quality of the population and the per capita GDP growth rate are significantly positively correlated,while the proportion of the elderly population and the per capita GDP are significantly negatively correlated.The changing trend of China’s population size and population structure will bring very severe challenges to China’s economic development in the future.Population is an important factor that determines social and economic development.China’s population size and structure have reached a very urgent turning point.We need to learn from international experience,more actively and effectively deal with the aging of the population,establish a comprehensive fertility support system,deepen education reform,promote industrial upgrading,introduce a delayed retirement policy,reform the pension system,and reform the registered residence policy to release labor demand.The transition period of population structure has come.China needs to fully understand the severe situation and far-reaching impact of the population problem,seize the window period of population policy adjustment,and launch a series of policies and measures in a timely and effective manner to promote the long-term and high-quality development of China’s economy. |
