A Study On The Influence Of The Change Of Population Age Structure On Economic Growth In China

In the recent three years,the birth policy has been frequently enacted by the Chinese government,which fully reflects serious population problems that China has confronted at present.Meanwhile,China's economy has entered a period of “new normal”,and the aging of our population is accelerating.Under the background of changing age structure in China,this thesis studies influence of the changes on the economic growth and gives great theoretical and practical significance to seek ways to deal with aging crisis in order to promote economic growth.This thesis,in the first place,systematically generalizes the relevant documents,researches and basic theories at home and abroad.Then it describes and analyzes the current situation of age structure in China,even summarizes the three major trends of changes in age structure in China so as to pick out the measurement index of age structure.Secondly,on the basis of decomposition of Cobb-Douglas Production Function,this thesis also profoundly explores the mechanism and path of age structure changing that influences economic growth from the four angles of capital output ratio,rate of labor force participation,human capital accumulation and technological progress.Finally,from the results we know that in accordance with the changes of age structure in China,the proportion of working population increases but small space for development,and the proportion of juveniles decreases obviously whereas the proportion of aging population increases.The contribution of the “first demographic dividend” to the rapid economic growth during 1990-2015 is about 15.57 percent.Obviously,there is no “second demographic dividend” in this period.From 2015 to2100,there are three kinds of birth rates(“low birth rate”,“medium birth rate” and“both high and low birth rate”)to predict the trend of changes of age structure in China in the future.No matter what speculation of the birth rate is based on,we can make speculations from the results during 2015-2100 that the contribution of age structure to economic growth is negative.The turning point of our demographic dividend appears around 2015.The influence of age structure on output factors is similar to that on economic growth.The internal structure of working population has played a very significantrole in promoting the four factors(capital output ratio,the rate of labor force participation,human capital accumulation and technological progress)in China.And working population from different age groups have different effects on the four factors.For example,the index resolution of mature working population from35-year-old to 54-year-old has an great effect on capital output ratio,the rate of labor force participation and human capital accumulation.As the proportion increases,the result is positive.But when it comes to great technological progress,labor forces from15-year-old to 34-year-old contribute obvious results.As for labor forces over65-year-old have an obvious negative effect on labor force participation rate and technological progress,and the effect on capital output ratio and human capital accumulation are not significant.