Research On The Impact Of Rural Aging On Urban-rural Income And Consumption Inequality In China

Data from the seventh national census shows that in 2020,China’s population aged 65 and above will account for 13.5%,much higher than the world average of 9.3%,and China has nearly 200 million elderly people,accounting for half of Asia’s above.my country’s aging process is not only characterized by fast speed,deep degree and large scale,but also shows a significant imbalance between urban and rural areas: after 1982,the gap between urban and rural aging degrees in China has gradually emerged,and the gap has accelerated in recent years.By 2020,the aging degree of the rural population will be 6.6 percentage points higher than that of urban areas.Compared with rural areas,China’s urban areas have a more robust old-age security system,better medical and health conditions,higher living standards,and longer life expectancy.However,since 1982,China’s rural areas have been aging faster than urban areas.The urban-rural imbalance in the degree of aging has gradually become prominent,mainly driven by the family planning policy and the selective transfer of rural labor.Among them,the strict control of the birth rate by the family planning policy is becoming more and more obvious,which makes China’s population grow ahead of time and undergo stage changes.The selective migration of rural laborers further exacerbates the degree of aging in rural areas.The age and direction of rural population migration have clear selectivity,and the emigrant population and the left-behind population also have significant heterogeneity in terms of human capital.The rural outflow labor force is mostly young and middle-aged population with relatively high level of human capital,while the labor force staying in rural areas is mostly the elderly population with relatively low human capital.As a result,The selective migration of rural population leads to the relative change of the proportion of urban and rural elderly population.This relative change in the degree of urban-rural aging further affects the urban-rural income gap.The aging of the rural population leads to a decrease in the effective supply of rural labor and a weakening of the level of rural human capital.Because of the existence of the urbanrural dual structure,the industrial and agricultural sectors are severely divided,and a large number of rural people are restricted by their age,making it difficult to switch to employment,and are forced to stay in the agricultural sector where the relative labor productivity is declining,resulting in urban and rural incomes.further increase in inequality.From this,it can be inferred that rural aging will lead to increased urban-rural consumption inequality.Based on the Keynesian consumption function theory,it can be seen that income is the key factor affecting consumption,so the expansion of the urban-rural income gap will be further transmitted to the expansion of the consumption gap as an intermediary variable.In addition,from the perspective of precautionary savings,the elderly population faces the uncertainty of future income caused by withdrawing from the labor force,while the support of my country’s social security system to the urban and rural elderly population is inconsistent,and rural residents lack adequate pension security due to the lack of Faced with relatively higher uncertainty,there is more incentive to reduce consumption and make precautionary savings.From the perspective of life cycle,the aging of rural residents’ age structure has a significant impact on the overall consumption expenditure structure of rural residents,which inhibits rural residents’ consumption of house purchases,communication consumption and entertainment consumption.Due to the relative imperfection of the rural pension system and consumer market,the decline of rural residents’ development and enjoyment of consumption demand at all levels has been led.It also makes them inclined to maintain the consumption of necessary living materials.It can be inferred that rural aging will increase urban-rural consumption inequality through the mediating effect of income and the direct effect on consumption propensity.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in my country from 2005 to 2019,an empirical test of the mediation effect model is carried out on the above inferences.The results show that the accelerating rural aging has expanded urban-rural income inequality,and through the mediation of income inequality The effect and the direct effect on the consumption tendency of rural residents lead to the expansion of urban-rural consumption inequality.Based on the above research conclusions,in order to cope with the deepening of rural aging,it is necessary to play the role of slowing down rural revitalization at the top-level strategic design level,pay attention to urban-rural balance and precise policies for rural disadvantaged groups in the aspect of old-age security,and strengthen talents in rural areas at the talent level.Empowering,cultivating and introducing mechanism construction,breaking household registration and labor market restrictions in institutional reform,and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas.