Study On Cotton Production Scale In Xinjiang Under The Constraints Of Resources And Environment

The proposal of supply-side reform has pointed out the direction for exploring the adjustment of the cotton industry’s factor structure,reducing production costs,improving the quality and efficiency.For a long time,China has relied on the extensive economic development model to achieve the goals of output increase,economic growth,and people’s income increase.The reality of limited factor resources and fragile ecological environment makes the development of low-carbon an inevitable choice for China’s economic transformation.Under the condition that production factors and ecological environment constraints are becoming more and more tight,it determines the scale of cotton industry production under the economic and ecological benefits targets by limiting the resources and environmental factors,which is important to change the extensive development model and reduce carbon emissions.Solving the imbalance of the input structure of cotton industry and reducing the cost are of great significance to promote the transformation and upgrading of the cotton industry in Xinjiang.This paper takes Xinjiang cotton production as the research object,selects relevant indicators from the aspects of production conditions,human factor input and material capital input to carry out gray correlation analysis to determine the gray correlation degree and dynamic change between each driving factor and Xinjiang cotton yield.The carbon emission coefficient method measures the carbon emissions of cotton industry in Xinjiang.The gray linear programming model is used to compare and analyze the carbon emissions under different target orientations.The results show that the correlation between cotton yield and driving factors in Xinjiang is strong,and the correlation between agricultural water consumption and cotton yield is the highest,and the effective irrigation area is second.The overall carbon emission of cotton industry in Xinjiang shows a rapid growth trend,and its evolution trend can be roughly divided into three stages: high-speed growth,steady growth and volatility growth stage.The historical data show that the large investment in fertilizer and agricultural film is the main source of carbon emissions in Xinjiang cotton industry.Under the constraints of resources and environment,agricultural film replaces fertilizer,while fertilizer,agricultural land conversion and irrigation are still the main“carbon emission sector”.Based on the guidance of economic and ecological benefits,relying on the constructed low carbon production model of cotton to solve a set of input-output combinations.Among them,the combinations of input-output under the guidance of economic benefits and the actual combination of cotton production in Xinjiang in 2016,the use of chemical fertilizers has been significantly reduced,and the corresponding carbon emission reductions have also decreased by 3.82%;the input of other factors has increased by different degrees,and the final cotton production has achieved a growth of 61.38%.However,the combinations of input-output under the guidance of ecological benefits may bring about a significant reduction in the use of carbon emission factors such as land tillage,fertilizer and agricultural film,and its overall carbon emissions will decrease by 29.87% compared with 2016,while cotton production increases by 1.86%.The low-carbon production model of cotton under different target orientations in this study has certain guiding significance for the decision-making of low-carbon production management of cotton in Xinjiang.