Enterprise Puterprise Purchase Decision-making Based On Belief Rule Base With Evidence Theory

Purchasing decision will not only affect the product inventory of the enterprise,but also affect the market price,supply-demand relationship and enterprise’s benefit.In actual economic activities,unreasonable procurement decisions will increase the sunk cost of enterprises,and then affect the overall performance of the supply chain.In view of this,the state has successively issued relevant policies such as "supply side structural reform" and "dynamic balance of supply and demand" to promote the matching of product supply and demand and the sustainable development of supply chain.In order to determine the purchase quantity,managers use the methods of exponential smoothing,moving average and regression analysis to predict the change trend of product market demand,and make purchase decisions in combination with their own cost structure and sales information,but the uncertainty of the market aggravates the deviation of actual purchase decisions.In the era of digital economy,multi-source information integration can effectively alleviate the decision-makers’ cognition of this uncertainty and improve the accuracy of procurement decision-making.How to integrate multi-source information is the key scientific problem.The confidence rule base based on evidential reasoning has advantages in dealing with multi-source procurement information and establishing the nonlinear relationship of demand forecasting,which provides a benchmarking scientific paradigm for establishing an efficient procurement decision-making model in this paper.Firstly,when the price is an exogenous variable,a demand confidence rule base based on historical sales information and decision-makers’ knowledge and experience is constructed,and an enterprise procurement decision model is constructed based on the demand confidence rule base;Then,the historical price information is added to the demand confidence rule base and extended to the price demand confidence rule base to explore the enterprise procurement decision-making problem when the price is an endogenous variable.Finally,through case study and numerical analysis,this paper compares and analyzes the multi cycle procurement decision-making model based on confidence rule base and the procurement decision-making model based on traditional methods(silver meal algorithm,minimum unit cost method and partial period balance method),tests the rationality and effectiveness of the model constructed in this paper,and condenses and improves the management enlightenment of enterprise procurement behavior.It is found that compared with the traditional demand forecasting methods,the procurement decision based on confidence rule base reasoning in this paper is more in line with the actual demand and can better reflect the change trend of the real value of market demand;In addition,the demand confidence rule base model based on price endogenous makes more reasonable procurement decisions and higher profits in multi cycle;Finally,in the multi cycle situation,the enterprise procurement decision model of the demand confidence rule base constructed under the conditions of price exogenous and endogenous is compared with the extended model(silver meal algorithm,minimum unit cost method and partial period balance method),and it is found that the batch procurement decision based on the demand confidence rule base is more reasonable,Its profit value is also higher.These research conclusions have certain practical value,which can guide enterprise decision-makers to make more reasonable procurement decisions.