Research On Airline Travel Demand In The Process Of Airlines Decision-making

Airline decision-making is the process of route selecting, flight planning and capacity assigning, and it can affect the profits of any airlines directly. Further more, research on the airline travel demand is the foundation of it. There is a fair amount of literature on various air travel demand, but most of them focus on the traffic forecasting and the macroscopical aspects, such as the traffic of the whole country, which cannot support for airlines decision-making effectively. Research on Airline travel demand is not always available but is important for airlines decision. As for operational aspect, many domestic airlines cannot forecast their air transportation demand based on any scientific methodology, especially in the forecasting air travel demand of new planning airline.The thesis systematically reviews the features of Airline travel demand, also demonstrates some factors that play important roles on it. Based on air transportation economics, market forecast and multi-variable statistical analysis and the like theories, the thesis establishes the index system about airline travel demand, and then puts forward the grey forecasting model and cross-sectional regression model to forecast the demand for the operational airline and new planning airline separately. In the end, it takes domestic airlines for concrete evidence research. The conclusion shows that the theoretical models are has great theoretical significance and practical value for any airlines to make its operational decisions scientifically.