A Comparative Study On The Causes Of Credit Default Risk In State-Owned And Private Corporate Bond Markets

The report to the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly identified preventing and defusing financial risks as one of the three critical battles.The2022 Central Economic Work Conference also emphasized the importance of preventing and defusing financial risks.Corporate bond market plays an important role in the development of China’s capital market.From 2014 to 2021,the amount of default in the corporate bond market increased rapidly from 1.34 billion yuan to 159.553 billion yuan,and the scale of credit default increased by 120 times.The severe situation of the development of credit default in the corporate bond market not only directly leads to the loss of the majority of investors,but also destroys the stability of China’s financial market.The transmission of credit default risk in the corporate bond market may trigger the occurrence of systemic financial risk if the credit default risk in the corporate bond market is allowed to expand on a large scale.In this context,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the causes of credit default risk in corporate bond market.Due to the importance of corporate bond issuers and the unique structure of state-owned and private corporate bonds in China’s corporate bond market,this paper tries to analyze the causes of credit default risk in the corporate bond market from the perspective of the main differentiation of corporate bond issuers.In order to rebuild the differentiated credit default risk early warning management system and risk control system of the corporate bond market.In this context,this paper will use a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis to compare the main factors affecting the default of corporate bonds between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.Firstly,this paper sorts out the current situation of corporate bond issuance and default,and compares the current situation of corporate bond issuance and default of state-owned and private enterprises.Secondly,on the basis of the research hypothesis,the paper analyzes the default cases of the first corporate bonds "17 Yongtai Energy CP004" and "20 Yongmei SCP003" of Yongtai Energy and Yongmei Holding Group,which are both in the coal industry,including the main body introduction,process analysis,cause analysis,and the reason comparison of the two defaults.Thirdly,using the method of empirical research,91 issuers who have defaulted corporate bonds and 664 issuers who have not defaulted corporate bonds from2014 to 2020 are selected as research objects.Combined with the actual situation of State-owned enterprises and private enterprises in China and relevant literature,13 indicators that may affect the default of corporate bonds are selected to construct the Logistics model.The whole sample,private enterprise sample and state-owned enterprise sample were regression;Finally,the paper summarizes and analyzes the research results,and puts forward policy suggestions for issuers,investors and regulators.Based on the case and the empirical method to the following conclusions: first,whether state-owned enterprises or private enterprises,corporate debt default will be affected by factors such as the company’s financial status,internal governance,but the state-owned enterprise is affected by a dominant,and the joining together of two job behavior of private enterprises were more likely to lead to corporate debt default;Second,compared with state-owned enterprises,private enterprises need more creditenhancing behaviors,such as improving their own credit through guarantee to reduce default risk.At the same time,the longer the issuance period of private enterprises,the more likely to default,but the above indicators have no significant impact on stateowned enterprises;Third,the more relaxed the financial market environment is,the lower the probability of default of corporate bonds of private enterprises,and stateowned enterprises are not affected by it.Therefore,for corporate bond issuers,stateowned enterprises and private enterprises should carry out risk management according to different influencing factors;For investors,we should choose the investment variety and the best time according to different influencing factors;For regulators,differentiated risk warning and regulatory measures should be carried out.