Research On The Influencing Factors Of Substantial Default Of Chinese Corporate Credit Bonds

Since the first material default event occurred in the bond market of China in2014,corporate credit default events have occurred frequently,and a large number of corporate default waves have occurred several times.With the passage of time,the default of corporate credit bonds in China is characterized by the normalization of default events,the diversification of industries of default subjects,the diversification of types of default bonds and,and the nature of defaulting enterprises is diversified.The frequent occurrence of credit default events in China’s credit bond market has a significant impact on enterprise operating.In the meantime,China’s credit bond market and even the local economy have suffered a huge impact.All market entities pay more attention to corporate debt risk.This paper analyzes the factors affecting the substantial default of Chinese credit bonds from the perspective of enterprises,and according to the conclusion,combined with the actual business situation of enterprises,put forward the feasibility of preventing the substantial default of credit bonds.The writing of this paper uses the methods of literature research,qualitative analysis,quantitative analysis and case analysis.Firstly,the background of the topic and the significance of the research are described,followed by a large number of literature learning and collation and literature review.Then it explores the development process of China’s credit bond market and the status quo of default,and makes theoretical analysis on the possible influencing factors of China’s corporate credit bond default.Then it selects various data of China’s credit bond market default to carry out empirical research and analysis.And select credit bond default enterprises as a case to analyze the influencing factors of credit bond default,verify the empirical analysis results Finally,it draws a conclusion based on the empirical research results,and puts forward relevant suggestions in combination with the actual operating conditions of enterprises.In the empirical research part of this paper,we select the issuers with material default in China’s credit bond market from 2014 to 2021 as the research object,and select the issuers with complete repayment of part or all of the bond principal and interest in the same period and no bond extension or material default in the same period as the control sample.Indicators are selected for analysis from the aspects of macroeconomic factors,corporate main factors,governance structure factors,financial status factors and government behavior factors,among which financial indicators are selected for factor analysis.In this process,three principal component factors are extracted,which are defined as profit factor,operation factor and debt paying factor respectively.Then,the correlation analysis of explanatory variables was carried out to avoid the interference of the high correlation of dependent variables on the regression analysis results.The results showed that there was no high correlation between explanatory variables.Then descriptive statistical analysis was carried out on the overall sample data.Finally,the empirical regression analysis and robustness test are carried out.The results showed that the Shibor,enterprise ownership concentration,ownership dispersion and illegal punishment from government department has a significant positive influence on enterprise credit default probability.Social financing scale,enterprises nature,enterprise profitability and solvency of enterprise credit default probability has significant negative effects.Corporate size,industry,operation level and management governance have no significant effect on the default probability of corporate credit bonds.According to the empirical analysis results,combined with the actual situation of enterprise management to enterprise credit bonds put forward the following suggestions: first,pay attention to the development of macro economy and market,make reasonable business plan and financing plan;Second,improve the governance efficiency of enterprises and seek a reasonable balance of equity;Third,strengthen the level of enterprise management,focus on improving the profitability of enterprises;Fourth,strengthen enterprise debt risk early warning,reasonable arrangement of funds to pay debts;Fifth,strengthen the relationship between enterprises and the government,to avoid punishment for violations of laws and regulations.