| The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 swept the world,causing economic growth in many cities to stagnate or decline.In this context,more and more scholars have begun to think about how cities can get rid of economic recession and achieve economic recovery.As a result,regional economic resilience has received widespread attention and has become a research hotspot.Since the reform and opening,the eastern region has developed into the most economically dynamic region in China by taking advantage of its unique geographical advantages and seizing the historical opportunity of industrial transfer in developed countries and Chinese Hong Kong,Chinese Macao,and Chinese Taiwan regions,which has strongly stimulated the rapid growth of China’s economy.However,behind the rapid economic growth,shocks and disturbances also occur from time to time.Because the economic structure of cities in the eastern region is complex and diverse and the pillar industries have their own characteristics,there are also significant differences in the performance of cities in coping with economic shocks.This typical feature provides a good sample for the study of regional economic resilience.Taking the eastern region as the research object,this thesis first systematically measures the economic resilience of cities in the two economic cycles of 1992-2007 and 2008-2019 by using the economic resilience index method,depicts the temporal and spatial pattern evolution characteristics of urban economic resilience in the eastern region.Secondly,it deeply analyzes the characteristics of industrial structure adjustment and industrial evolution path in the eastern region under the impact,reveals the relationship between economic impact and the adjustment range of urban industrial structure,evaluates the ability of industrial structure adjustment and adaptation of cities,and further describes the industrial evolution path in the eastern region under the impact.Thirdly,this paper constructs an econometric model to empirically test the influencing factors of economic resilience in the eastern region,and expounds its influencing mechanism in detail.Finally,facing the new development pattern of “dual circulation”,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the economic toughness of the eastern region.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the economic resilience of the eastern region has increased significantly in the two cycles,but the regional differences are still significant.Specifically,the average values of urban resistance index and resilience index increased from 0.001,-0.022 to 0.035 and 0.021 respectively;The number of highly resilient cities increased from 16 to 29.In terms of regional differences,the regional differences of impact resistance among cities have narrowed,but the regional differences of economic recovery have further expanded.In the comparison between the two groups of cities in the South and the north,the cities in the South showed better impact resistance and economic recovery in both cycles,but the regional differences were greater.In the relationship between urban impact resistance and economic recovery,they do not have a stable relationship,and only show a significant positive correlation in the second cycle.Second,the spatial pattern of urban economic resilience in the eastern region has changed significantly in the two cycles.From the perspective of spatial distribution characteristics,from1992 to 2007,H-H-type cities were concentrated in the middle and south of Shandong and the Pearl River Delta,L-L-type cities were concentrated in northern Hebei,Northern Jiangsu,eastern Jiangsu,Western Fujian,northern Guangdong and western Guangdong;From 2008 to 2019,Jiangsu and Fujian became H-H-type cities agglomeration areas,and northern Hebei,eastern Zhejiang and northern Guangdong became L-L-type cities agglomeration areas.From the evolution characteristics of spatial pattern,72% of the cities’ resilience types have shifted in the two cycles,of which 35% are upward and 27% are downward;Among the four types of cities,LL-type cities have the highest stability and L-H-type cities have the worst stability.Third,through the analysis of the industrial structure adjustment and industrial evolution path in the eastern region under the impact,it is found that the economic shock has a certain promotion effect on the industrial structure adjustment of the cities in the eastern region,and there is a negative relationship between the industrial structure adjustment range of cities and their economic resilience;The ability of adjustment and adaptation of urban industrial structure has an important impact on the shaping of impact resistance and economic recovery ability,but cities with strong impact resistance or economic recovery ability do not necessarily show good ability of adjustment and adaptation of industrial structure;The economic shock has accelerated the evolution of industrial structure from low-level to high-level in the eastern region.At present,the adjustment of industrial structure has entered the stage of improving quality and efficiency;The industrial evolution model of h-h-type cities has obvious path dependence characteristics,and the industrial evolution path has obvious interaction with urban economic resilience.Fourth,the influencing factors of economic resilience in eastern China are quite different in the two economic cycles.Specifically,although the economic openness and regional economic foundation have a significant impact on the resistance and economic recovery ability of eastern China in the two cycles,the nature of the effect has changed significantly;In addition to the above two factors,the impact resistance ability of the eastern region was also affected by factors such as industrial specialization,industrial non related diversification,urban scale and the degree of government intervention from 1992 to 2007,and the economic recovery ability was also affected by factors such as industrial non related diversification,innovation ability and labor capital;From2008 to 2019,the shock resistance and economic recovery ability of the eastern region was also affected by industry-related diversification and labor capital respectively.Fifth,there are also significant differences in the influencing factors of economic resilience between southern and northern cities in the two cycles.Specifically,from 1992 to 2007,only industrial specialization had a significant impact on the resistance ability of the two groups of cities,the regional economic foundation had a significant impact on the impact resistance of the northern cities,and the industrial non related diversification,economic openness and the urban scale only had a significant impact on the southern cities;In terms of economic recovery ability,regional economic foundation and innovation had a significant impact on both groups of cities,but industrial non related diversification only had a significant impact on northern cities,economic openness and labor capital only had a significant impact on southern cities.From 2008 to 2019,the impact resistance ability of northern cities was mainly affected by the innovation and the degree of government intervention,while the impact resistance ability of southern cities was affected by industrial specialization,industry-related diversification,economic openness and regional economic foundation;In terms of economic recovery ability,only the regional economic foundation had a significant impact on both groups of cities,but the direction of action was obviously different.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects: First,based on the thought of evolutionary economic geography,this paper expands the concept of regional economic resilience,systematically measures the economic resilience of the eastern region based on urban scale and long time series,and deeply analyzes the regional differences of economic resilience in the Eastern region from the perspective of regional differentiation,which enriches the empirical research on regional economic resilience in China;Secondly,on the basis of depicting the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of economic resilience in the eastern region,this paper deeply analyzes the process of economic reconstruction in the eastern region from the perspective of resilience,and expands the research content of regional economic resilience;Thirdly,this paper uses OLS regression model to empirically test the influencing factors of the spatial and temporal differences of economic resilience in the eastern region,and constructs the influencing mechanism of the spatial and temporal differences of economic resilience in the eastern region based on the idea of evolutionary economic geography,which helps to reveal the causes of the spatial and temporal differences of economic resilience in the eastern region. |
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