Spatial And Temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Analysis Of Regional Economic Resilience

As a new research topic,economic resilience is to study the response ability of regional economic system when it is impacted by natural environment mutation,economic crisis outbreak,technological iteration and so on.Western scholars took the lead in introducing resilience into the economic field to study when facing shocks why some regions achieve smooth economic transition and break the original path to achieve leapfrog development and why some regions' economic growth stagnates.The report of the Nineteenth National Congress clearly pointed out that we should build a modern economic system and implement the strategy of regional coordinated development.One of the important factors that cause the imbalance of economic development among regions in China is the difference of the ability to maintain macroeconomic stability under shocks.In recent years,the term "resilience" has become a hot topic of concern,but through consulting the existing domestic literature,it is found that there is still a lot of room for research on regional economic resilience.On the basis of systematically combing the relevant theories and measuring methods of regional economic resilienc,this paper takes 31 provinces as the research object,establishes an evaluation system of regional economic toughness from three levels: resistance ability,reorganization ability and renewal ability,and obtains 31 provincial economic toughness evaluation values by using the fuzzy matter-element analysis of extreme entropy value.The evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience are analyzed from the time and space evolution levels.The conclusion shows that the overall economic resilience of 31 provinces fluctuates and rises from 2005 to 2017,and the difference between two levels decreases,but the changes of resilience of each province are not balanced.In the measurement of regional economic resilience,by choosing different spatial weight matrices and using Gary and Moran index to test the spatial correlation,it is found that regional economic resilience has significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effect after 2007.In addition,after considering the spatial dependence,we use the relevant scholars research for reference to select the factors that may have an impact on economic resilience from the economic,social and cultural levels,and then establish a spatial econometric model to determine whether the factors will have an impact on economic resilience and the size of spillover effect.The Durbin model of time-space double fixing was used,and the historical and cultural factors in cultural factors failed to pass the significance test.Transportation infrastructure,industrial agglomeration,investment in fixed assets and technological innovation have strong direct effects on regional economic resilience.The indirect effect of fixed assets investment is not significant,while the indirect effect of scientific and technological innovation is positive,but the impact is small.Accordingly,the policy suggestions to improve the level of regional economic resilience are put forward from the aspects of "demonstration effect,multiplier effect".