Research On The Temporal And Spatial Evolution And Countermeasures Of Economic Resilience In The Yangtze River Delta

Resilience,an emerging new research agenda,is primarily about the coping capacity of a system facing uncertain shocks.In the course of rapid development of economic globalization,regional economy is facing more and more uncertain shocks such as cyclical economic crisis,technological change,weak growth and so on from the outside world and itself.There is a contradiction between these uncertain shocks in reality and people's vision of steadily growing regional economy.In the process of seeking solution to the contradiction,resilience theory provides a new concept for solving the contradiction.It promotes scholars to combine regional economy and resilience and study regional economic resilience,in order to promote the development of regional economy.Based on the related theoretical research,empirical research and evaluation index of domestic and international regional economic resilience,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of regional economic resilience for Yangtze River Delta(YRD hereafter)from four criterion layers of economic stability index,diversity index,innovation index and vigor index.Taking YRD as a case,this paper uses maximum entropy method to estimate the comprehensive value of regional economic resilience of 41 cities in YRD from 2007 to 2016.Firstly,this paper uses analytical-descriptive method to analyze the temporal evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience from three aspects:overall,provincial and city.The results indicate that:(1)On the whole,The regional economic resilience in YRD increases,the evaluation values of each criterion layer also increase,but the development is not balanced.(2)The economic resilience increases steadily in three provinces and one city,but the development speed is different.It can be mainly divide into three stages about the sustained and rapid growth,balanced development and steady development in the 10 years.(3)The regional economic resilience at city dimension enhances overall,the inequality decreases and the development speed varied.Secondly,the regional economic resilience in YRD are classified into four categories according to the natural breaking point classification method of ArcGIS based on the data of 2007,2010,2013 and 2016.The results show that the spatial differentiation of regional economic resilience presents overall maldistribution,significant difference in the province and the difference of regional economic resilience presents three terraces in 41 cities under the economic crisis.The spatial evolution of regional economic resilience shows that the high-value areas expanded,the low-value areas shrank,and the spatial pattern of regional economic resilience in the province has been changing.Thirdly,this paper uses spatial autocorrelation and gravity center method to analyze the spatial structure characteristics of the regional economic resilience in YRD.The results suggest that:(1)The degree of spatial aggregation of regional economic resilience changes a little,presents a spatial change process from dispersion to concentration.(2)On the whole,the spatial agglomeration pattern keeps unchanged,the spatial structure shows a certain amount of locking feature in the 10 years.(3)The spatial aggregation of regional economic resilience is still obvious,the hot spots are mainly located in Shanghai,the south of Jiangsu province and the north of Zhejiang province,and the scope of hot spots are extended.The cold spots are mainly located in Chizhou,the north of Anhui province and part of the north of Jiangsu province,and the cold spots overall pattern remain unchanged.(4)The center of gravity of regional economic resilience is moving northwest.Finally,this paper researches the factors influencing regional economic resilience by measuring the overlapping of two centers of gravity and the consistency of their movement.The results indicate that the economic stability index and diversity index are the principal influencing factors followed by the economic innovation index.Based on the analysis of influencing factors of regional economic resilience,this paper provides several upgrade strategies of regional economic resilience from two aspects:the whole and the regional.