An Empirical Study On The Growth Relationship Between The Logistics Industry And The Three Industries

The logistics industry provides service guarantee for the development of the three industries.Studying the growth relationship between the logistics industry and the tertiary industry is conducive to the coordinated and stable development of China’s logistics industry and the tertiary industry.Based on China’s statistical data,this paper analyzes the growth relationship between the logistics industry and the primary,secondary and tertiary industries from the perspectives of national level and provincial level.This paper firstly proposes three research hypotheses for the research question.In order to test the research hypothesis,this paper analyzes the research from two perspectives.Firstly,based on the time series data of the correlation variables from 1952 to 2020,using the analysis methods,such as VAR model,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis,prediction variance decomposition,Johansen cointegration analysis,error correction model,etc.,the growth relationship between the logistics industry and the tertiary industry is empirically tested and analyzed.The results show that from the national level,there is a small one-way granger causal relationship between the annual growth rate of the logistics industry and the annual growth rate of the three industries.the growth rate of the logistics industry fluctuates greatly by its own impact,and the impact fluctuation of the three industries is small and the duration is shorter.The impact of the predicted variance fluctuation of the growth rate of the logistics industry mainly comes from itself,followed by the growth rate of the secondary and tertiary industries.The fluctuation of the growth rate of the primary industry is the smallest.There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the logistics industry and the growth of the tertiary industry,and the growth rate of the primary industry and the growth rate of the logistics industry is more closely linked.In the long-term cointegration relationship,there is self-correction.If there is a short-term non-equilibrium state,the error will be reversed to a certain extent,and the degree of correction is about 24%.Secondly,We used the relevant panel data model method to empirically analyze the panel data of the relevant variables of the logistics industry and the tertiary industry from 2005 to 2019.The research results pointed out that there was a cointegration relationship between the logistics industry and the tertiary industry.When pllogistics is used as the dependent variable,the growth elasticity of the first,second and third industries is 0.1,0.176 and 0.489,respectively.There is a significant provincial individual effect on the growth relationship.Specifically,the individual effectivity values of Beijing,Sichuan,Hebei,Hainan,Tibet Autonomous Region,Qinghai Province,and Heilongjiang Province were-0.374,-0.483,0.613,-0.594,-1.145,-0.672,and-0.464,respectively,all of which were credible at the 10%significance level;From the provincial level data,at the significance level of 10%,the annual growth rate of the logistics industry is the one-way Granger reason for the annual growth rate of the secondary industry There is no Granger causal relationship between the annual growth rate of the primary industry and the annual growth rate of the logistics industry;There is no Granger causal relationship between the annual growth rate of the tertiary industry and the annual growth rate of the logistics industry.