Analysis Of Scenario Prediction Of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The Yangtze River Delta Region

With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization,carbon emissions are also increasing.In order to mitigate the impact of carbon emissions on the environment and future development,China has successively put forward several goals,such as achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As one of the main representatives of large urban agglomerations in China,the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 16.88% and 16.22% of the country’s total economic output and population,and it is the main region for energy consumption and carbon emissions.Therefore,it is extremely significant to explore the carbon peaking time in the Yangtze River Delta region for the realization of China’s overall peak carbon dioxide Emissions target.This paper is based on externality theory,environmental Kuznets curve theory and sustainable development theory.First,this paper analyzes the economic and social development of the Yangtze River Delta region,and calculates the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2004 to 2019 through the carbon emission factor method,and analyzes its evolution characteristics.Secondly,this paper analyzes the impact of scale factors,structural factors and technical factors on carbon emissions from a theoretical level,and selects population size,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,industrial structure and energy intensity as explanatory variables,then based on the extended STIRPAT model,an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta region is carried out,finally it is tested whether the model can be used as a carbon emission prediction model.Thirdly,this paper combines the three scenarios of scenario analysis,setting benchmarks,energy saving and strong energy saving,to predict the carbon emissions from 2020 to2035,and analyzes whether the three scenarios can achieve carbon peaking in 2030,and further analyzes the influencing factors of peak carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,this paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions based on the development status of the Yangtze River Delta region and the Chinese goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions,which can be used as a reference for promoting peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.The main conclusions emerging from the study are as follows.First,from 2004 to 2019,carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region have more than tripled,showing an overall growth trend,but the carbon emissions of its internal provincial cities are differentiated.Second,the regression results of factors affecting carbon emissions show that population size,urbanization rate and energy intensity have a positive impact on carbon emissions,and the proportion of the tertiary industry has a negative impact on carbon emissions,and the per capita GDP and carbon emissions show an inverted U-shaped relationship,which is in line with the environmental Kuznets curve.After the fitting effect test,the regression equation of carbon emission influencing factors can be used as a carbon emission prediction model.Third,under the energy-saving scenarios and strong energy-saving scenarios,carbon emissions will peak in 2030 and 2025,respectively,while under the baseline scenario,carbon emissions will hardly reach their peak around 2030.Fourth,the influence degree of each influencing factor on the time and peak of peak carbon dioxide emissions is different.From the perspective of peak carbon dioxide emissions time,the influence degree of each influencing factor from large to small is industrial structure,energy intensity and urbanization rate,population size,and per capita GDP.From the point of view of peak volume,the influence degree of each influencing factor from large to small is population size,urbanization rate,industrial structure,per capita GDP,and energy intensity.